New England Patriots vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

As bad as the New York Jets have been recently, and it hasn't been pretty, they are 4-3 straight up and 5-2 against the spread the last seven times they've been lined as underdogs at home. The Jets fall into that spot again this week when they host the AFC East champion New England Patriots Sunday afternoon at MetLife Stadium.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 41.4-12.9 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots just dumped the Dolphins 41-13, easily covering the spread as nine-point favorites. New England led 14-13 at the half and then scored three touchdowns in the third quarter to pull away. So since that debacle at Kansas City back in Week 4, the Patriots are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS.

At 11-3, New England is tied with Denver for the best record in the AFC and owns the head-to-head tiebreaker thanks to that 43-21 victory over the Broncos back in November. The Patriots lead the league in scoring at 32 points per game, helped along by a plus-11 turnover margin, which ranks fourth-best.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

The Jets just snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-11 victory at Tennessee last week, covering as three-point favorites on the road. New York spotted the mighty Titans an 8-3 third-quarter lead but rallied to score two touchdowns in the last 18 minutes (a feat for the Jets), getting the game-winner on a short Chris Ivory run with three minutes to go.

So over the last three weeks, New York lost but covered against Miami, lost in overtime at Minnesota and beat Tennessee. Finally, the Jets have been underrated on the betting lines in this rivalry recently and have gone 3-0 ATS in the last three meetings.

Back in October, New York gave New England all it could handle before falling 27-25, and last year, the Jets managed a split of the season series, losing by a field goal in Foxborough and then winning in overtime at MetLife.

Smart pick

Yes, it's a cliche to say we can throw the records out in a rivalry like this, but in this case, it might be true. New England could blow out New York, or the Jets could grind this one into the fourth quarter. Based upon the results of the last three meetings in this series, the smart money in this spot resides with the home-dog New York squad.

Betting trends

• New England is 4-2 SU in its last six games on the road.
• The total has gone over in nine of NY Jets's last 10 games when playing New England.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.