Kansas City Chiefs vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Pittsburgh is 3-1 both straight up and against the spread in its last four home games, while Kansas City is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 road bouts. In a key game in the AFC playoff race, the 9-5 Steelers and 8-6 Chiefs hook up Sunday afternoon at Heinz Field.

Point spread: The Steelers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.4-27.7 Steelers

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs had lost three games in a row both SU and ATS but beat Oakland last week, 31-13, covering as an 11-point favorite. Kansas City led, 10-3, at the half, then scored three times in the third quarter to put the game away.

For the game, the Chiefs outgained the Raiders, 388-280. So at 8-6, Kansas City is one game off the pace in the battle for the second AFC wild-card spot and cannot afford another defeat. The Chiefs only rank 22nd in total offense but seventh in rushing, eighth in total defense and fifth in points allowed, at just 18 per game.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers just went 2-0 both SU and ATS on a two-game road trip, after winning in Atlanta last week, 27-20, covering as field-goal favorites. Pittsburgh grabbed an early 13-0 lead and never trailed, as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger threw for 360 yards and zero interceptions, keeping the Steelers one step ahead of Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

And wide receiver Antonio Brown continued his ridiculous season with 10 catches for 123 yards. So at 9-5, the Steelers would be the fourth seed in the AFC if the playoffs started today, although they're not guaranteed of anything yet.

Smart Pick

With the emergence of Le'Veon Bell as a yardage machine and Roethlisberger hitting Brown all over the place, Pittsburgh leads the league in average time of possession at over 33 minutes per game. And so far this NFL season, teams that have won the time of possession battle have covered the spread 66 percent of the time. So the smart money in this spot resides with the Steelers, the home team at a short spread.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in seven of Kansas City's last 10 games.
• Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last eight games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.