Indianapolis Colts vs. Dallas Cowboys Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys look to continue their quest for the NFC East title when they host the Indianapolis Colts Sunday. The Cowboys moved into sole possession of first place in the division with a 38-27 win over the Philadelphia Eagles last week as 3.5-point underdogs and will be taking on a Colts team that clinched the AFC South title last week with a 17-10 victory against the Houston Texans as seven-point home favorites.

Point spread: The Cowboys opened as one-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 32.1-27.9 Colts

Why the Colts can cover the spread

Indianapolis still has an outside chance at the top seed in the AFC, although the New England Patriots and Denver Broncos would both need to lose their last two games. The Colts lost to both the Patriots and Broncos earlier this season and would need to win their final two games on the road against Dallas and the Tennessee Titans to have any shot.

However, Indy head coach Chuck Pagano has publicly stated he will play his starters versus the Cowboys regardless of the slim odds his team has to make that happen. The Colts are 3-1 straight up and against the spread in their last four games against NFC foes, though, and can certainly keep up with Dallas on the scoreboard.

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

The Cowboys just need to win their last two games to capture the division crown for the first time since 2009, thanks to their victory against the Eagles, who may not even make the playoffs in the stacked NFC. While they have not been a good home team this year, they know how big this game is in terms of playoff implications and would like to finish among the top two seeds in the conference so they can avoid playing in the Wild Card Round.

Dallas quarterback Tony Romo may be asked to do a little bit more through the air with running back DeMarco Murray possibly missing the game after hand surgery, but that worked out well against Philly, as he connected with wide receiver Dez Bryant on three touchdown passes to fuel the upset.

Smart Pick

This game means a lot more to the Cowboys, who need to show they can win at AT&T Stadium because they will likely be hosting at least one playoff game there. Indianapolis has not played particularly well despite winning four in a row, failing to beat the spread in its past two with quarterback Andrew Luck also throwing four of his 14 interceptions over the last month.

Luck has also thrown for less than 300 yards three times during the winning streak after surpassing 300 in nine of the first 10 games. In addition, the Colts have lost the past two meetings with Dallas both straight up and against the spread, so look for the Cowboys to make it three straight wins and cover the spread in their home finale.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in 11 of Indianapolis' last 16 games.
• The total has gone over in four of Dallas' last five games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.