Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Green Bay just had a five-game winning streak snapped, but even at 10-4, the Packers still stand in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. In absolute need of a victory, Green Bay will be a big favorite on the road when it takes on the 2-12 Buccaneers Sunday afternoon in Tampa.

Point spread: Packers opened as 10-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.6-18.5 Packers

Why the Packers can cover the spread

The Packers had won five games in a row straight up and covered three of their last five against the spread but lost a tough game last week at Buffalo 21-13. Green Bay actually outrushed the Bills 158-113 but gave up a punt return for a touchdown and a safety—nine points in a game that was decided by eight.

And the wind in Buffalo played games with the Packers passing attack. And yet, at 10-4, Green Bay still controls its own destiny; win its last two games (against the Bucs and Lions), and it wins the NFC North. Also, while the Packers own the No. 6 seed in the NFC at the moment, they could still claim the No. 1 seed, if the Cards fall right.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers have lost four games in a row and nine of their last 10, after falling at Carolina last week 19-17. But they covered as four-point dogs, so they're now 6-5 ATS over their last 11 contests. It might be a case in which Tampa isn't quite as bad as the numbers oddsmakers are forced to post on Bucs games.

Tampa also covered getting 11 points at New Orleans, getting seven points at Cleveland, six points at Washington (the Bucs won that one outright) and six points against Cincinnati. Tampa has lost eight games this year by one score or less; if it does that Sunday, it'll cover again.

Smart pick

The Packers need this one, and they'll have the bounce-back factor on their side. Also, don't be surprised if close to half, the crowd at Raymond James is wearing green and gold; this one could turn into a Green Bay home game. The smart choice in this spot is with the Packers, minus the points.

Betting trends

• Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last six games when playing Tampa Bay
• Tampa Bay is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.