Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos are still chasing the top seed in the AFC while the Cincinnati Bengals are fighting for the AFC North title as they meet in the final Monday Night Football matchup of the season.

The Bengals are coming off a dominant 30-0 rout of the Cleveland Browns last week as two-point road underdogs and will try to end Denver’s four-game winning streak that has also seen the Broncos go 2-2 against the spread during that stretch.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.9-23.5 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

Denver has its eyes on the No. 1 seed and should be confident heading into Cincinnati after winning 13 of the previous 15 meetings. The Broncos are 6-2 straight up and against the spread in their past eight games as road favorites and have played outstanding defense since getting a scare against the Miami Dolphins in a 39-36 victory four weeks ago.

They failed to cover the 6.5-point spread in that win over the Dolphins and have allowed an average of 14.3 points in winning their last three games. Offensively, Denver has scored progressively less as well during the winning streak.

But anytime you call quarterback Peyton Manning out, he usually responds with a big game.

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals were an outstanding home team prior to their past five games at Paul Brown Stadium, going 11-1 ATS before their recent skid of 1-3-1 vs. the line. They have been one of the biggest enigmas in the NFL this year, losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers, 42-21, as three-point favorites in their last home game after winning three straight on the road.

Cincinnati bounced back from the loss to Pittsburgh by blanking the Browns and could be a dangerous team in the playoffs. However, the Bengals may have to win the division to get into the postseason, making this an extremely important game before visiting the Steelers next week in the regular-season finale.

Smart Pick

The Broncos deserve to be small road favorites in this spot based on their current form and the unpredictability of this Cincinnati team right now. But this is a coin-flip game from the side perspective since a Bengals victory would not be surprising at all.

Bettors should look at the total instead and consider a play on the over, which is 9-3 in Cincinnati’s past 12 games as a home underdog and 6-3 in the previous nine meetings with Denver, including 3-1 in the last four. Manning has been quiet lately and seems long overdue to explode, making this the perfect time in a nationally televised game.

Both teams will also be looking to make a statement offensively so that the Patriots are not the only team feared in the AFC playoffs.

Betting Trends

• Denver is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing Cincinnati.
• The total has gone under in five of Cincinnati's last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.