Texas Bowl Betting: Texas Longhorns vs. Arkansas Razorbacks Odds, Analysis

Arkansas may have needed a late rally this season just to become bowl eligible, but the Razorbacks were one of the best teams in college football to wager on, going 9-3 against the spread. Meanwhile Texas, despite some struggles this season, also managed to post a winning ATS record of 7-5.

Former Southwest Conference rivals renew acquaintances when the 6-6 Hogs and 6-6 'Horns hook up in the Texas Bowl Monday, December 29 in Houston.

Texas Bowl point spread: Razorbacks opened as five-point favorites; the total was 45.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 33.6-22.1 Razorbacks

Why the Longhorns can cover the spread

The Longhorns looked like they might miss a bowl in coach Charlie Strong's first season, sitting at 3-5 heading into November, but they won three of their last four games—going 3-1 ATS—to become bowl eligible.

First, Texas broke open a close game and beat Texas Tech 34-13, then it ran for 227 yards in a 33-16 victory over West Virginia, and finally it put up 430 yards of offense in a 28-7 win over Oklahoma State.

So maybe Coach Strong's systems are sinking in. The Longhorns rank 104th in total offense but 28th in total defense, and they held four of their last five opponents to 23 points or less.

Why the Razorbacks can cover the spread

The Hogs opened this season 3-1, with the only loss coming in a game that was tied at halftime against Auburn. Arkansas then lost three games in a row but covered as a nine-point underdog against both Texas A&M and eventual SEC champion Alabama.

The Hogs also later covered as 10-point dogs at then-unbeaten Mississippi State and then snapped their 17-game SEC losing streak with a 17-0 shutout of LSU. Arkansas followed that up with a 30-0 shutout of Ole Miss, before giving up a late lead and losing at Missouri 21-14 in the season finale.

On the season the Hogs rank 28th in the country in rushing at 220 yards per game and 22nd against the run, holding foes to 124 yards per game.

Smart Pick

Both teams, going through rebuilding projects, improved as the season progressed, but Arkansas is a little ahead of schedule compared to Texas. The Hogs run the ball better than the 'Horns and play better defense. So the smart choice in this spot is with Arkansas, minus the points.

Trends

• The total has gone under in four of Texas' last five games.
• Arkansas is 9-2 against the spread in its last 11 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.