Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The law of averages is catching up with the New Orleans Saints; after a run of 11 straight home victories, with a 9-1-1 record against the spread, the Saints are 0-4 both straight up and ATS the last four times they've played at the Superdome. But even at 6-8, New Orleans leads the NFC South, heading into a key home game with 5-9 Atlanta Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 55.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 25.7-21.3 Saints

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons just lost at home to Pittsburgh, 27-20, but actually outgained the Steelers, 407-398, and outrushed them, 97-45. Atlanta held Pittsburgh running back Le'Veon Bell to just 47 yards on 20 carries, and 13 of those yards came on one play.

Two weeks ago, the Falcons picked up a back-door cover at Green Bay, and the week before that, they beat the best team in the NFC so far this season, the Arizona Cardinals. So Atlanta is 2-1 ATS over its last three games and 4-3 ATS over its last seven.

Finally, the Falcons beat the Saints in the first meeting between the teams this season back in September, 37-34, in overtime, racking up 568 yards of total offense.

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints took over first place in the NFC South with a 31-15 victory at Chicago Monday night, easily covering as three-point road favorites. New Orleans led, 24-0, before the Bears hit the board, which didn't happen until early in the fourth quarter.

The victory probably came as a great relief, following the debacle two weeks ago against Carolina. So the Saints have won two of their last three, both SU and ATS, and at 6-8, lead the South by a half-game over the Panthers.

That's despite losing four games by a combined nine points. Finally, while the Saints lost at Atlanta back in September, they swept the two games from the Falcons last season.

Smart Pick

This matchup is very even at the moment, but New Orleans holds an edge in two key categories: It leads the league in third-down conversions at 48 percent and does a better job of controlling the clock, ranking ninth in average time of possession.

And so far this NFL season, teams that have won the time of possession battle have covered the spread 66 percent of the time. So the smart choice in this spot is with New Orleans.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games on the road
• New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.