Detroit Lions vs. Chicago Bears Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Not too long ago, the Chicago Bears owned the rivalry with the Detroit Lions, winning nine of 10 meetings. But the worm has turned, as Detroit has won the last three meetings and covered the spread in the last five. The NFC North-leading Lions meet up with the hapless Bears Sunday afternoon at Soldier Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 24.1-11.6 Lions

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions just rallied to beat Minnesota last week 16-14, so they're 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread over their last three games. Detroit spotted the Vikings the first 14 points of the game, then scored the last 16 points for the victory.

So that's four games this season the Lions have won in which they trailed at some time in the fourth quarter. Detroit only ranks 17th in total offense but second in total defense and first against the run, holding foes to just 64 yards per game on the ground. The Lions also own a plus-eight turnover ratio.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The Bears just lost their third straight game both SU and ATS, falling at home Monday night to New Orleans 31-15, so coming up with reasons to recommend Chicago is getting tough. The Bears have some tools on offense, so one might think they could stay close with Detroit, which isn't exactly an offensive powerhouse.

Chicago lost to the Lions at Ford Field back on Thanksgiving Day 34-17 but actually led that game early 14-3. It had the spread covered as seven-point dogs heading into the fourth quarter before allowing Detroit to score the last 10 points.

Smart pick

The Lions are roaring toward a division title, while the Bears have packed it in. If this game were being played in Detroit, the Lions might be favored by 10 points or more. And at the moment, there is no home-field advantage for Chicago, not with the boos raining down from the stands.

So the smart money here lies with the Lions, at the manageable spread.

Betting trends

• Detroit is 7-2 SU in its last nine games.
• Chicago is 2-6 SU in its last eight games.

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