If the San Francisco 49ers Aren't Going to Use Vernon Davis They Should Move on

If football players are commodities in the offseason, products to be assessed before given a sticker price, then San Francisco 49ers tight end Vernon Davis is the league’s equivalent of a Gremlin.

Not a furry monster, or a monster of any kind. No, I mean the rust-prone car that’s among the worst vehicles ever conceived.

Davis is also creaky, discarded and seemingly obsolete. He was once driven hard by the 49ers as the engine of their passing offense. Now, during a lost season, something previously unimaginable has not only happened but continued: He’s been reduced to an afterthought.

Soon enough, it’ll be wise to knock him down one notch further and make Davis a former 49ers employee.

With the 49ers unofficially beginning their offseason, the franchise’s focus will be on head coach Jim Harbaugh. That’s where it should be for now, because Harbaugh’s replacement will determine how every other offseason domino falls.

But when general manager Trent Baalke’s attention does turn to the business of roster evaluation and slapping a dollar sign on each player, the decision with Davis could be relatively pain-free. Usually a declining, underused product doesn’t require much thought.

It’s difficult to fathom just how far Davis has fallen this season. But let’s try together.

I last visited the cratered and desolate land that is Davis’ 2014 season just prior to Week 11. At the time, Davis had been not only unproductive but forgotten in the offense, and it seemed like a rocky bottom had been reached.

That’s when Davis had missed two games and most of a third because of injuries. But when healthy—or at least healthy enough to play—he had done little, averaging 24.1 receiving yards per game.

So maybe he actually wasn’t healthy at all? In an odd and cold way, that’s the hopeful solution here. Because Davis’ season has continued a plunge into deep blackness. He’s became what every veteran fears: irrelevant, and an expensive piece that can be replaced.

That’s a difficult ending to digest for Davis’ time in San Francisco. Especially after a 2013 season in which he finished tied for fifth among all players with 13 touchdowns and sixth among tight ends with 850 receiving yards.

But with Davis entering the final year of his current contract and due to account for a cap hit of just over $7 million in 2015, there are only three sensible ways to move forward: a pay cut, a trade or his release. A pay cut definitely isn't happening after he held out for more money last offseason (you have permission to laugh heartily). 

His rapidly declining performance makes it difficult to seriously look at any other avenue. Consider his drop rate, which is charted by Pro Football Focus (subscription required) and defined as the percentage of “catchable” balls a pass-catcher drops. Davis' drop rate is tied for a league low at his position.

Yes, that means his name gets to be in the company of fellow esteemed tight ends such as the Falcons’ Levine Toilolo and Arizona’s John Carlson.

Player	Targets	Drops	Drop Rate
Vernon Davis	46	6	19.35
Levine Toilolo	42	6	19.35
John Carlson	45	6	16.67

Dropped balls lead to slammed headsets and solemn postgame pizza-gorging regardless of how often a tight end is or isn’t used.

But they’re at least a little more tolerable when the pass-catcher in question is receiving a high volume of footballs thrown his way. That's when the good often far outweighs the bad and everyone carries on merrily.

So let’s make another comparison using dropped passes. This time we’ll keep it simple and put Davis alongside the leader in drops at his position, Chicago Bears tight end Martellus Bennett.

Player	Targets	Drops
Martellus Bennett	112	7
Vernon Davis	46	6

Bennett is one of four tight ends targeted over 100 times this season. Compared to Davis, he’s had 66 more opportunities for a drop. Yet Davis is still challenging him for the league lead in banana hands.

Davis has removed the crutch of early injuries, telling CSNBayArea.com’s Matt Maiocco he’s been healthy since the 49ers returned from their Week 8 bye. In the seven games since then, Davis has made his struggles to begin the season look like a highlight reel.

During that stretch, he’s averaged 13.4 yards per week with a single-game high of three catches. He was limited to only one reception in two of those seven games. Then in Week 15 against the Seattle Seahawks, a new level of sadness hit: He was held without a catch for only the sixth time in his career.

Right about now you may be saying, “Whatever. The Niners missed the playoffs because their entire offense is a funny joke.”

You’re not wrong, but please recall that even during quarterback Colin Kaepernick’s crippling regression throughout the second half of this season, wide receiver Anquan Boldin has managed to log three 90-plus yard games. Fellow wideout Michael Crabtree has sunk toward irrelevant status too, yet he’s still put together a handful of decently alright games since Week 8 (four with 50-plus yards).

Davis' blocking has declined dramatically too. Notice the rarely used Darth Vader method here:

And in the same game, he decided Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett was worthy of a free pass. Davis is always a giving and generous man.

"

Next play, Vernon Davis completely whiffs on his guy again. https://t.co/v6yyZVxXrn

— Tre9er (@Tre9er) December 15, 2014"

So the Niners are left with a declining and aging asset (Davis will turn 31 next month) during a time when they’re set to hurl themselves head-first into a 2015 salary-cap wall.

That’s when the first year of Kaepernick’s increased salary kicks in, and as a result Baalke will be sifting through a roster currently with the third-most cap commitments for next season, according to Joel Corry of the National Football Post.

There are safety nets in place to manage that crunch. The Niners have $4.5 million in unused cap space from this season that can roll over, and the salary cap is projected to rise by up to $8 million, according to USA Today’s Jarrett Bell.

But a mess still awaits with $148.9 million of space currently occupied, which is over $7 million higher than even the most optimistic cap-rise projection.

Using your imagination to see a near future without Davis for the Niners gets even easier when the fourth-highest-paid player at his position in 2014 (per Over The Cap) is both underwhelming and underused.

Davis can’t do much about the latter problem, because despite his pleas to offensive coordinator Greg Roman, usage is mostly out of his hands. He can force matters by consistently providing an open bailout option for Kaepernick (which he’s also not doing). But at some point plays need to be designed specifically for Davis, and flow in his direction. During the 49ers’ three-game losing streak that ended their season, he was targeted only 12 times.

But during that stretch 49ers tight ends recorded a combined 92 receiving yards. The days when you assumed all or most of that went to Davis are long over.

Reminder: Garrett Celek plays in the same offense as Davis, with the same limited opportunities.

Player	Receptions	Yards	Longest catch
Vernon Davis	4	39	23
Garrett Celek	2	53	31

When Davis’ production lags behind Celek—who had all of six career receptions prior to this season—during any stretch ever, something is seriously wrong with the trajectory of his career.

In the same critical span of the season, Davis’ contributions were also behind Bruce Miller (64 receiving yards and a touchdown). Bruce Miller plays fullback.

The 49ers could choose to stomach his paycheck and retain Davis, perhaps correctly thinking Kaepernick needs a familiar receiving option while resurrecting his career. The motivation to do that could be strong with Crabtree set to depart as a free agent. Dollars would then be axed elsewhere, with outside linebacker Ahmad Brooks and his ballooned $9.6 million cap hit a fine place to start.

If Baalke opts for safe and conservative in his approach this offseason, he’ll do that. If he instead embraces reality, he’ll come to the conclusion that every precious dollar dedicated to Davis can be better spent elsewhere.

Salary-cap information courtesy of Spotrac unless otherwise noted.