NFL Week 16 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Bettors have a big reason to smile in Week 16. With college football's regular season now finished, the NFL has taken over Saturday. This week, we have four days to wager on our choice of games, with one contest on Thursday, two on Saturday, 12 on Sunday and one on Monday. It's a joyous occasion, indeed.

The downside of those two Saturday games is a little less time to prepare by digging through current trends, feverishly checking injury reports and breaking down matchups. Well, fret not, because if you're looking for some updated spreads, the latest analysis and predictions, you've come to the right place.

Below, you'll find the current odds for the week's full slate of games and corresponding picks against the spread, followed by some in-depth analysis for a couple of games the oddsmakers in Las Vegas have deemed the closest to call in Week 16.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Tennessee at Jacksonville	JAX -3	Jaguars	Jacksonville will pull out a win due to Tennessee's quarterback situation.
Philadelphia at Washington	PHI -9	Eagles	This is a do-or-die game for the Eagles against a bad Redskins defense.
San Diego at San Francisco	SF -2.5	Chargers	San Francisco doesn't have the offense to keep up with the Chargers.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh	PIT -3	Steelers	See analysis below.
Detroit at Chicago	DET -7.5	Lions	The Bears are in disarray, and a tough Lions defense is coming to town.
New England at NY Jets	NE -11	Jets	The Patriots are the dominant team, but a division game against the Jets won't result in a blowout.
Cleveland at Carolina	CAR -3.5	Panthers	It's easy to take Derek Anderson over Johnny Manziel right now.
Atlanta at New Orleans	NO -7	Falcons	Matt Ryan is playing very well, and he'll keep up with Drew Brees and Co.
Minnesota at Miami	MIA -7	Vikings	Miami's offense isn't good enough to blow out Minnesota.
Green Bay at Tampa Bay	GB -11	Packers	After a Week 15 debacle, this will be a statement game for Aaron Rodgers.
Baltimore at Houston	BAL -5	Ravens	Houston's quarterback situation won't allow it to take advantage of Baltimore's secondary.
NY Giants at St. Louis	STL -5	Giants	The Rams don't have much of an offense, and the Giants have Odell Beckham Jr.
Indianapolis at Dallas	DAL -2.5	Cowboys	See analysis below.
Buffalo at Oakland	BUF -6	Bills	The Raiders may not score a single point this week.
Seattle at Arizona	SEA -9	Seahawks	It's easy to feel sorry for what Ryan Lindley is about to endure.
Denver at Cincinnati	DEN -3.5	Broncos	The Broncos are a better team, and the Bengals are terrible in prime time.

Game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 16.

Analyzing Close Calls of Week 16

Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys (-2.5)

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

There is one giant factor here, and that's the availability of Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray.

The NFL's rushing leader had surgery on a broken thumb, but he hasn't been ruled out of Sunday's contest against Indianapolis, according to Todd Archer of ESPN.com: "Sources told ESPN's Ed Werder that the Cowboys are confident Murray will be able to play against the Colts as they consider this injury to be easily tolerated."

Murray hasn't been ruled out, because his injured thumb is on his left hand and he's a right-handed ball-carrier. Still, his situation should be monitored closely in the coming days.

The reason why this pick rests on Murray's availability is his large role in the Dallas offense. Yes, he's rushed for 1,687 yards and 11 touchdowns while averaging 4.8 yards per carry, but his effectiveness has had beneficial effects on quarterback Tony Romo.

This season, Romo is on pace for career highs in completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio and passer rating. This is due to Murray's stellar play out of the backfield. Indianapolis is ranked 16th against the run and 19th against the pass heading into Week 16, and Dallas can take advantage of its defense if everyone is healthy.

Prediction: Cowboys 31, Colts 27

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Steelers aren't winning games in typical fashion. This team generally relies on a stout defense to generate victories, but this season, it's doing it with offense. Ranked second in the league in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards and sixth in points per game, Pittsburgh is on a roll.

The team is averaging 27.8 points per game for the year and has scored fewer than 27 just once in its last eight games. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, running back Le'Veon Bell and wide receiver Antonio Brown have given opposing defenses nightmares this season, and they match up well against Kansas City.

Kansas City's biggest weakness on defense has been its inability to stop the run. Ranked 28th in the league, the team is allowing an average of 132.6 yards per game on the ground. That's not a good omen for Kansas City, as Bell is averaging 4.9 yards per clip this season. While the Chiefs are ranked second against the pass, Brown has the ability to take the top off a defense if it begins to sell out against the run.

Here's a telling statistic comparing Brown to Chiefs receivers, via ESPN Stats & Info: 

Offensively, Kansas City hasn't shown the firepower to keep up with the Steelers. Before putting up 31 points on the lowly Oakland Raiders in Week 15, the Chiefs had failed to score more than 24 points in their six previous games, accumulating 20 or fewer in four of those contests.

Quarterback Alex Smith doesn't have the arm or the weapons capable of taking advantage of Pittsburgh's 25th-ranked pass defense, and that won't help Kansas City keep up with a Steelers team capable of putting a good amount of points on the scoreboard.

Prediction: Steelers 27, Chiefs 20