Holiday Bowl Betting: Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. USC Trojans Odds, Pick

The Nebraska Cornhuskers will have to deal with the loss of head coach Bo Pelini and a potential home-field advantage for the USC Trojans as they try to pull off an upset in the Holiday Bowl. Pelini was fired and replaced by Mike Riley, but interim coach Barney Cotton will lead Nebraska. USC’s Steve Sarkisian will try to win his first bowl game there as the head man and help his Trojans beat the Cornhuskers and cover the spread for the third time in as many meetings.

Holiday Bowl point spread: The Trojans opened as four-point favorites; the total was 62 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 39.6-38.5 Cornhuskers

Why the Cornhuskers can cover the spread

Even though Nebraska did not finish the season well, dropping two of its last three games and going 1-3-1 against the spread in its past five, knowing Riley is on board for next year can only help. The Cornhuskers got off to an 8-1 start in 2014, going 6-2-1 versus the line before losing consecutive games to the Wisconsin Badgers and the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

They probably should have won the Big Ten West, which is one of the main reasons Pelini was let go. With Cotton on the sideline, the Nebraska players will not need to worry about the future like they would have if Pelini were still there.

Why the Trojans can cover the spread

San Diego is just two hours away from Los Angeles, making this an easy commute for USC. In fact, the only game closer for the Trojans would be the Rose Bowl in Pasadena.

The shorter trip should give them more time to prepare for the Cornhuskers. Sarkisian was USC’s quarterback coach and offensive coordinator for the wins against Nebraska in 2006 and 2007, so he is somewhat familiar with his opponent, although Pelini became the head coach there in 2008.

Starting with the 1996 Rose Bowl, the Trojans are 9-3 ATS against Big Ten opponents.

Smart pick

The Cornhuskers may feel some sort of relief with Pelini out of the picture, but it is also difficult to find leadership from an interim coach. The first year as head coach at USC did not go perfectly for Sarkisian, but he has a lot more experience in big games than Cotton, including his playing days as quarterback for the BYU Cougars.

The Trojans have won eight of their past 10 bowl games straight up and ATS, including last year's 45-20 rout of the Fresno State Bulldogs as five-point favorites in the Las Vegas Bowl. If Wisconsin and Minnesota can both beat Nebraska and cover the spread, USC should have no problem doing the same thing in the Holiday Bowl.

Trends

• The total has gone over in five of Nebraska's last six games.
• Southern Cal is 14-5 SU in its last 19 games.

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