Heart of Dallas Bowl Betting: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Louisiana Tech Odds

Louisiana Tech, in its second season under head coach Skip Holtz, nearly won the Conference USA Championship Game, and it's been one of the best teams in college football on which to wager this season, going 10-3 against the spread. The 8-5 Bulldogs get a shot at the Big Ten when they battle 6-6 Illinois in the fifth edition of the Heart of Dallas Bowl on Friday, December 26, at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas.

Heart of Dallas Bowl point spread: The Bulldogs opened as four-point favorites; the total was 61 (line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 39.9-21.7 Bulldogs

Why the Fighting Illini can cover the spread

The Illini won their last two games, upsetting Penn State and Northwestern, to become bowl-eligible for the first time in three seasons under head coach Tim Beckman. Illinois is also 4-2 over its last six games, easily covering as a 27-point underdog at Wisconsin and upsetting Minnesota.

The Illini racked up 438 yards of offense against the Wildcats, 291 yards on the ground, while hitting their high-water mark for points this season. Illinois has had to play musical chairs at quarterback, but three guys have combined to post a 24-11 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs started 2-3 this season but covered getting 34 points from Oklahoma (48-16) and 32 points from Auburn (45-17). Louisiana Tech then won five games in a row, hitting the 50-point mark a couple of times. And in the game that clinched the CUSA West title, the 'Dogs put up 76 on Rice.

Louisiana Tech then led favored Marshall late into the fourth quarter as an eight-point underdog before allowing a score with two minutes to go to lose 26-23. Quarterback Cody Sokol threw for 3,200 yards with 29 touchdown passes this season, running back Kenneth Dixon ran for 1,200 yards and 21 scores, and the Tech defense ranks 32nd in the country overall, 16th versus the run.

Smart pick

Louisiana Tech suspended a half-dozen players before the Marshall game, and it's unlikely they'll play in this bowl—and still the Bulldogs are favored by a touchdown. That might say more about Illinois than it does about Louisiana Tech.

So, the smart play in this spot might be with the Bulldogs despite the suspensions.

Trends

• The total has gone over in six of Illinois' last nine games.
• Louisiana Tech is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.