Trade Ideas, Suitors If Cincinnati Reds Head for Full-Blown Fire Sale
To rebuild or not to rebuild...
It's not always easy for a team or its fanbase to accept the need to blow things up and start over, but often times it's a necessary evil to avoid toiling in mediocrity.
One team facing that very question this offseason is the Cincinnati Reds, who slipped from 90 wins and a wild-card berth in 2013 to 76 wins and a fourth-place finish in the National League Central this past season.
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After a slow start to the 2014 season, the Reds seemed to be hitting their stride when they closed out the first half going 26-15. That put them at 51-44 overall, just 1.5 games back in the NL Central standings.
Things fell apart from there, though, as they limped to a 25-42 record in the second half to finish 14 games back of the division-winning St. Louis Cardinals.
Injuries undoubtedly played a role in the team's struggles, but they were not entirely to blame for the poor performance, and now the team is left with some big decisions to make.
It's worth nothing that regardless of how the 2014 season went, the moves that went down this past week at the winter meetings likely would have taken place.
With four starting pitchers headed for free agency following the upcoming season, someone from the group of Johnny Cueto, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Alfredo Simon was likely to be moved.
It wound up being both Latos (to the Miami Marlins) and Simon (to the Detroit Tigers) who were dealt, opening up a rotation spot for Tony Cingrani and newly acquired Anthony DeSclafani.
The question now is how the Reds will approach the rest of the offseason.
The team could use the money freed up by moving the aforementioned pitchers to address the hole in left field and add a bullpen arm or two, effectively restocking for another potential push toward contention.
The other option would be to continue selling off some of its high-priced pieces in an effort to trim payroll and add to what is a rapidly improving farm system.
That's the option we'll be focusing on here.
With a ton of money tied up in just a handful of players, payroll flexibility is an issue, and that has them in real danger of ending up in the same predicament the Philadelphia Phillies currently find themselves in.
Let's start by taking a look at the Reds' significant financial commitments beyond the 2015 season:
| Joey Votto | $14M | $20M | $22M | $25M | $25M | $25M | $25M |
| Homer Bailey | $10 M | $18 M | $19 M | $21 M | $23 M | $25 M* | - |
| Brandon Phillips | $12 M | $13 M | $14 M | - | - | - | - |
| Jay Bruce | $12 M | $12.5 M | $13 M^ | - | - | - | - |
| Total | $48 M | $63.5 M | $68 M | $46 M | $48 M | $50 M | $25 M |
It's fair to assume Joey Votto and Homer Bailey won't be going anywhere given the money they are still owed. The team may be able to unload Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce, though, and those guys have already seen their names come up in trade rumors at one point or another.
So let's start by taking a look at who could be interested in acquiring those two players and what the Reds could expect to receive in return.
Brandon Phillips
Phillips, 33, hit just .266/.306/.372 this past season with eight home runs and 51 RBI, and his .678 OPS represented the lowest mark of his career.
A thumb injury played a part in the drop in production, as he missed 33 games starting on July 10, but he has been steadily declining since posting the best numbers of his career in 2011.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS+ | oWAR |
| 2011 | .300 | .353 | .457 | 118 | 4.0 |
| 2012 | .281 | .321 | .429 | 99 | 2.6 |
| 2013 | .261 | .310 | .396 | 94 | 1.7 |
| 2014 | .266 | .306 | .372 | 91 | 1.1 |
That being said, he is still one of the best defensive second basemen in the game, and as long as he can stay on the field he should be a lock for double-digit home runs and is still a solid run producer.
Considering how weak the second base position is in free agency, with Rickie Weeks, Asdrubal Cabrera and Stephen Drew essentially representing the current market, Phillips could generate some interest.
If the Reds were to eat $15 million of his remaining salary, that would make him an $8 million player annually over the next three years—and a far more attractive option.
The Toronto Blue Jays may be perhaps the most obvious fit for Phillips, as second base has been a revolving door for them since Aaron Hill left town.
A big league-ready arm like 24-year-old prospect John Stilson (25 G, 3.18 ERA, 8.5 K/9 in Triple-A), who could immediately help out in the bullpen, packaged with slick-fielding second baseman Ryan Goins as an immediate replacement for Phillips, could be enough to get a deal done if it means the Reds save $24 million.
The Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics are other teams that could use a second base, with Joe Panik then shifting to third base in the Giants' case, but the Blue Jays make the most sense.
Phillips does have a limited no-trade clause that would allow him to block a trade to 10 teams.
Jay Bruce
After three straight season with 30-plus home runs and 90-plus RBI, Bruce endured the worst performance of his career in 2014 by a wide margin.
The 27-year-old hit just .217/.281/.373 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI, as his OPS dropped from .807 in 2013 to a dismal .654 this past season.
After hurrying back from knee surgery in May, Bruce never found his stride, and being hobbled for much of the season obviously played a role in his struggles.
Regardless, the drop in production hurts his trade value to a point, but that has not stopped the Reds from gauging the market for the slugger.
Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports was the first to report that the Reds were willing to listen to offers for Bruce:
"The Reds also have engaged in preliminary discussions on deals involving two-time All-Star right fielder Jay Bruce, according to major-league sources. Though club officials say the team is merely listening on players rather than shopping them, a trade of Bruce for more cost-effective talent would be a major step toward retooling with a lower payroll in 2015.
"
With offense at a premium around the league, the $24.5 million owed to Bruce over the next two years and $13 million option for 2017 actually make Bruce a more attractive trade target for teams.
So what is the asking price for a 30-HR slugger in the prime of his career?
"The Reds are looking for 'inexpensive major-league ready players,' according to scouts from another team familiar with what the Reds are seeking in trade talks," wrote Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun.
The Baltimore Orioles are one team that kicked the tires on Bruce, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, but the two sides were unable to find a match.
They still appear to be the best fit as they look to replace the production lost by the departures of Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz, but they may be unwilling to part with the necessary pieces to get a deal done with Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy likely off the table.
With that said, the Texas Rangers may be the most intriguing trade partner, as they continue to search for a replacement for Alex Rios in left field.
Joey Gallo and Jorge Alfaro are likely untouchable, but a package built around outfielder Nick Williams and right-handers Luke Jackson or Jake Thompson would be awfully hard for the Reds to turn down.
The San Francisco Giants and San Diego Padres are both also looking for an offensive boost, but they may not be able to put together as attractive a package.
Bruce can block a trade to eight teams with a limited no-trade clause, with the Rangers, Padres and Giants not among them.
Other Trade Chips
While unloading Phillips and Bruce would be the most significant moves from a financial standpoint, they are far from the only trade chips on the roster.
Flame-throwing closer Aroldis Chapman is projected to earn $8.3 million in arbitration this winter, and he has one more year of arbitration left before hitting free agency in 2017.
After watching Andrew Miller land a four-year, $36 million deal, it's hard to say Chapman is not worth his price tag, but if the Reds do start selling off pieces, an expensive closer becomes a luxury for a team that wouldn't be in a position to contend.
There is not a team in baseball that wouldn't love to add the 26-year-old to the back of its bullpen, and given his dominance the Reds would almost certainly be able to land a pair of high-end prospects in return.
The Toronto Blue Jays are currently without a proven closer, while the Detroit Tigers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Los Angeles Angels are all contenders who could be willing to splurge on Chapman to upgrade their pens.
After Chapman, the next most attractive trade chip is right-hander Leake, who is projected for a $9.5 million salary in his final year of arbitration eligibility.
There is a chance the Reds could look to re-sign him, but with so much young pitching down on the farm, they may be better off dealing him or at the very least extending him a qualifying offer next winter.
The 27-year-old has gone 25-20 with a 3.54 ERA (3.96 FIP) and 1.249 WHIP over the past two seasons, and he reached the 200-inning mark for the first time last season with 214.1 innings of work.
He's not an ace-caliber arm like Cueto or Latos, but he's the type of steady pitcher teams look for in the middle of their rotations. The fact that he would be a rental player hurts his value, but a package similar to what they got in return for Latos and Simon is completely reasonable.
Lefty reliever Sean Marshall could be of interest if he proves healthy, though his $6.5 million salary could be a non-starter. Manny Parra is probably a better trade chip at this point, as he was solid last season and is cheaper at $3.5 million. Neither player would net much in return, but moving them would be an easy way to trim payroll.
The aforementioned Angels are in need of a proven left-handed bullpen arm, and the same goes for the Detroit Tigers, Milwaukee Brewers and Baltimore Orioles.
Shortstop Zack Cozart is never going to be a .300 hitter, but he's a better offensive player than he showed in 2014, when his .568 OPS ranked dead last among qualified players.
There is no reason he can't be a .675 OPS guy with 30 doubles and 10 home runs while playing Gold Glove-caliber defense, and that is worth something at shortstop. Cozart is projected to earn $2.5 million in his first year of arbitration, and moving him now could be the best way to maximize what value he does have.
The New York Mets are the first team mentioned whenever the shortstop position is talked about, and he may be worth a mid-level prospect to them as a defensive upgrade over Wilmer Flores with the potential for better offense than Ruben Tejada.
The Future
Should the Reds in fact opt to sell off some or all of the above-mentioned pieces, they would obviously be headed for a step backward in 2015, but the rebuild may not take as long as some may think.
Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco both enjoyed breakout seasons in 2014, earning spots in the NL All-Star team, and they are both under team control through the 2017 season, so they figure to be core pieces of the offense alongside Votto.
The same goes for speedy center fielder Billy Hamilton, who finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting last season and still has plenty of room to get better as his plate discipline improves.
Provided the team can come to terms on an extension with Cueto, he would join Bailey, Cingrani and a handful of bright young arms to give the team a rotation built for long-term success.
A lot will be hinging on the continued development of their high-end prospects, but they have some potential future stars.
Here is a look at some of the marquee talent down on the farm that is on the cusp of breaking into the big leagues:
| RHP Jonathan Crawford | 8-3, 2.85 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 85 K, 123.0 IP | '16 |
| RHP Anthony DeSclafani | 6-7, 3.78 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 97 K, 102.1 IP | '15 |
| RHP Ben Lively | 13-7, 3.04 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 171 K, 151.0 IP | '15 |
| RHP Michael Lorenzen | 4-6, 3.13 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 84 K, 120.2 IP | '16 |
| RHP Robert Stephenson | 7-10, 4.74 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 140 K, 136.2 IP | '15 |
| RHP Nick Travieso | 14-5, 3.03 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 114 K, 142.2 IP | '16 |
| OF Phil Ervin | .237/.305/.376, 34 2B, 7 HR, 68 RBI, 68 R, 30 SB | '16 |
| OF Jesse Winker | .287/.399/.518, 20 2B, 15 HR, 57 RBI, 57 R | '15 |
Robert Stephenson has the stuff to be a future ace, and Jesse Winker is one of the best pure hitting prospects in all of minor league baseball, but there is plenty of talent behind them.
With so much young pitching at their disposal, the Reds should not only be able to rebuild the pitching staff with their in-house talent, but also use some of those arms as trade fodder to improve other areas of the roster.
No team ever wants to throw in the towel before a season even starts, but the Reds are a team that could legitimately take two steps forward by taking one step back this coming season.
Trading off a handful of the above pieces, using some of the money to lock up Cueto and enduring the growing pains of a youth movement could put them in the best position long-term.
If they don't sell off anymore pieces, there is certainly a chance they could contend in 2015, but the odds are stacked against them and delaying the rebuild another year only sets the franchise back further.
It's a tough call, and one the Reds have no doubt been debating since the 2014 season wrapped up. Either way, they are definitely a team worth keeping an eye on over the next few months.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted. Projected arbitration totals via MLBTradeRumors.
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