Boca Raton Bowl Betting: Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Marshall Odds, Pick

The Marshall Thundering Herd almost went undefeated this season and won a conference championship, but they finished the campaign by going 0-3 against the spread over their last three games. Northern Illinois, meanwhile, also won a conference title and went 3-0 ATS over its last three games.

The champions of Conference USA take on the champions of the MAC when 12-1 Marshall and the 11-2 Huskies meet in the inaugural Boca Raton Bowl Tuesday, December 23 at FAU Stadium.

Boca Raton Bowl point spread: Thundering Herd opened as 11-point favorites; the total was 65. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 50.6-36.0 Thundering Herd

Why the Huskies can cover the spread

The Huskies started 3-0 this season, including a win at Northwestern, followed by a loss at Arkansas and later got upset at home by Central Michigan. Then they won their last seven games in a row, including a 51-17 romp over Bowling Green in the MAC Championship Game for their third conference title in the last four seasons.

NIU let the Falcons stick around for about a quarter-and-a-half, then went on a 24-0 run to put the game away. So the Huskies have won at least 11 games five years in a row. On the season, the Huskies ranked 40th in the country in total offense and 14th in rushing, while their defense held eight of 13 opponents to 21 points or less.

Why the Thundering Herd can cover the spread

The Herd started this season with 11 consecutive victories, many in blowout fashion, before finally losing in the regular-season finale in overtime to Western Kentucky. Marshall then shook that off and rallied to beat Louisiana Tech in the C-USA Championship Game 26-23.

The Herd outgained the Bulldogs, 429 to 268 total yards, but made things hard on themselves by turning the ball over four times. Still, Marshall scored twice in the last eight minutes to secure the victory. For the season, the Herd ranked second in the country in total offense, seventh in rushing and 30th in total defense.

Smart Pick

Marshall has had a fine season, but it appears as if it's been slightly overrated on the betting lines lately, going 0-3 ATS in its last three games. And now it's favored by double digits over a conference champion. So while the Herd might well win this game outright, the smart money probably resides with the underdog Huskies.

Trends

• Northern Illinois is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
• Marshall is 13-1 straight up in its last 14 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.