Poinsettia Bowl Betting: Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego State Aztecs Odds, Pick

Heading into its big rivalry game with Army, the Navy Midshipmen were on a nice run, winning four of their last five games and going 3-1 against the spread over their last four outings. San Diego State, meanwhile, has won five of its last seven games straight up, and is 3-0 ATS in its last three contests.

Two teams playing some good ball of late meet when the 6-5 Middies and the 7-5 Aztecs play in the Poinsettia Bowl Tuesday, December 23 at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego.

Poinsettia Bowl point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 54. (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 30.7-29.8 Aztecs

Why the Midshipmen can cover the spread

The Middies started this season 2-4, but all four of those losses came against teams that are headed to bowls. Navy then won four of its last five games to earn a third straight bowl bid. And the only loss during that late run came in a game against Notre Dame in which the Middies led through three quarters.

Also, over its last five games, Navy has averaged 45 points per outing. On the season, the Middies rank second in the nation in rushing at 358 yards per game, outrushing every opponent but one. And winning the ground battles is always a good start when trying to win games and cover spreads in college football.

Why the Aztecs can cover the spread

The Aztecs also started just 2-4 this season but won five of their last seven games to finish in a tie for first place in the Mountain West's West Division, earning a bowl bid for the fifth season in a row. In its penultimate game, San Diego State beat bowl-bound Air Force, 30-14, covering as a six-point favorite, and in its season finale ,it stuffed San Jose State 38-7, covering at minus-14.

On the season, the Aztecs averaged 219 yards per game rushing, while their 21st-ranked defense held opponents to 147 yards per game on the ground.

Smart Pick

Navy holds an edge on offense with its running game, but San Diego State holds an advantage on defense. And in close calls like this, the smarter money resides with the better defense. So the smart choice in this spot is with the Aztecs.

Trends

• Navy is 4-1-1 SU in its last six games
• San Diego State is 5-2 SU in its last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.