Miami Beach Bowl Betting: BYU Cougars vs. Memphis Tigers Odds, Analysis and Pick

The BYU Cougars are just 5-11-1 against the spread over their last 17 games, but they're also 4-1 both straight up and ATS in their last five bowl games. Meanwhile, the Tigers of Memphis haven't even played in a bowl since 2008. In an intriguing matchup, the 8-4 Cougars and 9-3 Tigers meet in the inaugural Miami Beach Bowl Monday, December 22 at Marlins Park.

Miami Beach Bowl point spread: Tigers opened as one-point favorites; the total was 57.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 42.4-36.3 Tigers

Why the Cougars can cover the spread

The Cougars started 4-0 this season, then lost talented quarterback Taysom Hill for the season to a nasty knee injury and lost four in a row. But BYU got hot again at the end, as backup quarterback Christian Stewart improved his play, and it won its last four games in a row, finishing with a 42-35 victory over Cal in which Stewart tossed five touchdown passes.

So the Cougars are playing in a bowl for the 10th year in a row. On the season, BYU averaged 272 yards per game passing, 191 yards per game rushing, and its defense, while a little vulnerable through the air, held foes to 118 yards per game on the ground.

Why the Tigers can cover the spread

The Tigers started 3-3 this season, with tough losses at UCLA and at Ole Miss, but then they finished with a flourish, winning their last six games by an average score of 36-13 to claim a share of the American Athletic Conference championship.

And the nine victories equaled this team's total of the last three seasons combined. So Memphis is playing in its first bowl in six seasons. On the year, the Tigers averaged 231 yards per game through the air and 192 yards per game on the ground, and their defense ranked 22nd in the country, holding foes to 343 yards per game.

Smart Pick

As the spread indicates, this looks like a good, even matchup. Both teams are balanced on offense, and both can play defense. But sometimes bowl games come down to the team that wants it more, and in this spot, that might be Memphis, whose players will be participating in their first bowl.

So the smarter choice here is with the Tigers.

Trends

• BYU is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 games
• The total has gone over in five of Memphis's last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.