Idaho Potato Bowl Betting: Western Michigan vs. Air Force Odds, Analysis, Pick

Western Michigan came out of almost nowhere this season to become one of the two best teams in college football on which to wager, going 10-2 against the spread and earning a bowl bid. Air Force also bounced back after a down season last year to get back to a bowl. The 8-4 Broncos and the 9-3 Falcons hook up in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl Saturday, December 20 in Boise.

Idaho Potato Bowl Point Spread: Broncos opened as three-point favorites; the total was 56.  (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark Computer Prediction: 36.2-32.5 Broncos

Why the Broncos Can Cover the Spread

After going 1-11 last year the Broncos went 8-4 this year to make a bowl for the first time since 2011. They opened this season 2-3, with losses to Purdue, Virginia Tech and in overtime to Toledo, but then won six games in a row before getting upset in their season finale by eventual MAC champion Northern Illinois.

Along the way the Broncos covered 10 spreads in a row, making them (along with TCU) the best moneymaker in college football this season. Western Michigan averaged 265 yards per game through the air this year, 179 yards per game on the ground and held seven of 12 opponents to 21 points or fewer.

Why the Falcons Can Cover the Spread

After going 2-10 last year the Falcons finished this regular season with a flurry, winning five of their last six games straight up and going 4-1 against the spread over their last five contests to return to a bowl. Air Force started 4-1, with wins over Boise State and Navy, then lost to Utah State.

The Falcons then won four in a row and beat Army to claim the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy for the third time in the last five seasons. Air Force then beat Colorado State in the season finale 27-24, winning outright as a touchdown underdog without starting quarterback Kale Pearson.

On the season, the Falcons ranked eighth in the country in rushing at 272 yards per game while holding foes to 142 yards per game on the ground.

Smart Pick

Western Michigan is more balanced on offense and owns an edge on defense. Meanwhile, Air Force might be without its starting quarterback. So the smart money in this spot resides with the Broncos.

Trends

• Western Michigan is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games
• Air Force is 4-1 ATS in its last five games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.