Camellia Bowl Betting: South Alabama vs. Bowling Green Odds, Pick

South Alabama won six games to earn its first-ever bowl berth but struggled down the stretch, winning just one of its last five games straight up, going 1-6 against the spread over its last seven outings. Bowling Green, meanwhile, won seven games to earn a third straight bowl bid but also finished poorly, losing its last three games SU, going 0-3-1 ATS over its last four contests.

In the first edition of the Camellia Bowl the 6-6 Jaguars take on the 7-6 Falcons Saturday, December 20 at the Cramton Bowl in Montgomery.

Camellia Bowl point spread: Falcons opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 54 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 22.3-22.0 Jaguars

Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jags started 5-2 this season, with wins at Kent State, at Idaho and at Appalachian State. They then lost four of their last five games but gave UL-Lafayette a tough contest, playing the Cajuns to a 9-9 tie through three quarters, beat a decent Texas State team, had the spread covered at South Carolina into the fourth quarter and lost by just two points to bowl-bound Navy.

So USA has given some good performances against some quality foes.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons started 7-3 this season, with a win over Indiana out of the Big Ten, and later won five of their first six MAC games, propelling themselves to the MAC East title. BGU then only trailed favored Northern Illinois 13-7 late into the second quarter of the MAC Championship Game before letting that one get away.

On the season the Falcons averaged 252 yards per game passing, 177 yards per game rushing and hit the 30-point mark seven times. So while the Bowling Green defense might leave something to be desired the Falcons can generate enough on offense to stay in most games.

Smart Pick

As the spread indicates this should be a close one. Bowling Green owns the edge on offense, but South Alabama holds the edge on defense. And the Jaguars should have a home-crowd advantage, playing just about four hours up the road from their home in Mobile. So the smart money in this spot probably resides with USA.

Trends

• South Alabama is 1-4 SU in its last five games
• Bowling Green is 2-4 SU in its last six games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.