Cotton Bowl Classic Betting: Michigan State Spartans vs. Baylor Bears Odds, Pick

The Baylor Bears get a consolation game of sorts after getting snubbed by the College Football Playoff selection committee as they square off against the Michigan State Spartans in the Cotton Bowl at AT&T Stadium.

The Bears are riding a five-game winning streak—going 3-2 against the spread—since suffering their lone loss of the season while the Spartans lost twice this year to two schools that are in the four-team College Football Playoff field in the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes.

Cotton Bowl Classic point spread: Bears opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 71.5 (Line updates and matchup report).

Odds Shark computer prediction: 54.3-52.9 Bears

Why the Spartans can cover the spread

Michigan State has arguably faced stiffer competition on its way to the Cotton Bowl, and the College Football Playoff selection committee would likely agree with that statement. The Spartans may have lost both of their toughest games this year to the Ducks and Buckeyes, but they bounced back from each of those setbacks to cover the spread in multiple games afterwards.

After losing to Oregon, they beat the line in consecutive games and won six in a row before falling to Ohio State. Since dropping a 49-37 matchup against the Buckeyes, Michigan State has won and covered three straight.

Why the Bears can cover the spread

Baylor will be playing close to home and should have thousands of fans there cheering them on. The Bears went unbeaten at home this season, going 4-2 against the spread, and they have averaged 48.4 points in winning their past five games overall since losing 41-27 on the road to the West Virginia Mountaineers as eight-point favorites.

Baylor’s motivation will be the key, as head coach Art Briles needs to tell his players that the only way to prove they belong among the top-four teams in the country is to go out and prove it on the football field. Beating Michigan State worse than Ohio State did would help.

Smart Pick

The Big Ten has taken plenty of criticism this year, and rightfully so. However, it’s games like this that can earn the conference some respect. While the Bears certainly have the right to be upset about not playing in the College Football Playoff, that disappointment can work against them here.

The Spartans have won and covered their past three bowl games, and they have also gone 8-1-1 ATS in their previous 10 overall as underdogs. Even though Baylor may have enjoyed a better regular season, Michigan State is the better team and just happened to lose to two of the top four teams in the nation.

For that reason, the Spartans are the play as underdogs in the Cotton Bowl.

Trends

• The total has gone OVER in 11 of Michigan State's last 14 games

• Baylor is 17-8 ATS in its last 25 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.