Rose Bowl: Florida State Seminoles vs. Oregon Ducks Odds, Analysis and Pick

The Pac-12 champion Oregon Ducks will try to hand the ACC champion Florida State Seminoles their first loss of the season and advance to the national championship game with a victory in the Rose Bowl on January 1 at 5 p.m. ET in Pasadena. 

The Ducks have won their last eight games both straight up and against the spread since losing at home to the Arizona Wildcats 31-24 as 21.5-point favorites.

Meanwhile, the defending national champion Seminoles have won 29 games in a row, but they have failed to cover 11 of their past 14 games dating back to last year’s BCS Championship Game victory against the Auburn Tigers.

Rose Bowl point spread: Ducks opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 71.

Odds Shark computer prediction: 51.3-40.1 Ducks

Why the Seminoles can cover the spread

Florida State has not been an underdog since losing to the Clemson Tigers back in 2011 and remains undefeated this year despite failing to beat the spread a lot more often than not. Regardless, the Seminoles are still the defending national champs with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner in Jameis Winston.

No matter what you think of Winston, he has yet to lose a game as a college quarterback—going 27-0 in his starts—and he remains one of the most clutch players in the game. Another thing potentially working in Florida State’s favor is the layoff between games.

The time off cooled the hot Seminoles before last year’s national title game and could do the same thing to Oregon.

Why the Ducks can cover the spread

The Ducks have been the best team in the country since falling to Arizona, and all bettors need to do is look at their ATS record to see why. They have been absolutely relentless against their opponents, including the Wildcats during a 51-13 rout in the Pac-12 Championship Game.

Oregon easily covered the spread in the rematch with Arizona and proved to all of its doubters that this team truly belongs in the national semifinals. The Ducks are playing like Florida State did last year, led by likely Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota.

The junior quarterback made a wise decision coming back to school this year after entertaining the idea of leaving early for the NFL draft. Mariota has a great opportunity to improve his stock here by going head-to-head with Winston.

Smart pick

Oregon’s offense is simply too much to handle for the Seminoles in this spot, which is why the Ducks are favored by nearly double digits. Florida State has made a bad habit of keeping its opponents in the game way too long before doing just enough to win at the end.

While that may work in the ACC, Oregon is a team full of firepower that can jump out to a double-digit lead in a heartbeat. The Seminoles will not know how to react to that situation because they have grown used to needing only one score to win.

This is clearly not the same team that won it all last year, and playing with fire will finally burn them. Watch for the Ducks to quack their way to a victory by at least two touchdowns.

Trends

• Florida State is 5-0 SU in its last five games
• Oregon is 5-0 ATS in its last five games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.