Orange Bowl Betting: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs Mississippi State Odds, Pick

Two teams that fell just short of beating the champions in their respective conferences will play each other in the Orange Bowl, as the SEC’s Mississippi State Bulldogs take on the ACC’s Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets.

Mississippi State dropped a 25-20 decision on the road against the top-ranked Alabama Crimson Tide but covered the spread as a nine-point underdog while Georgia Tech lost the ACC Championship Game to the defending national champion Florida State Seminoles 37-35 as a 3.5-point dog.

Orange Bowl point spread: Bulldogs opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 61.5. (Line updates and matchup report)

Odds Shark computer prediction: 43.9-38.5 Bulldogs

Why the Yellow Jackets can cover the spread

Unlike Ole Miss, the Yellow Jackets finished the year strong outside of the narrow loss to Florida State. Before that, Georgia Tech had won five games in a row, and the team has still covered six straight heading into the Orange Bowl.

The Yellow Jackets even defeated another SEC team in the Georgia Bulldogs 30-24 in overtime as 10.5-point underdogs in their annual rivalry game before they played the Seminoles. It’s worth noting that the Orange Bowl has been a bit of a consolation when not hosting the national championship, resulting in underdogs going 8-3 against the spread in the past 11.

Georgia Tech is 4-0 ATS in its last four games as a dog, winning three of them.

Why the Bulldogs can cover the spread

The Bulldogs obviously did not finish the regular season like they started, dropping two of their last three games after winning their first nine and jumping to the top of the polls. But they suffered a major letdown following the loss to Alabama and knew it would be very difficult to overcome that setback and make the College Football Playoff field without the Crimson Tide losing again.

The 31-17 loss to Ole Miss as a 2.5-point favorite in the Egg Bowl may have been an extended part of that hangover for Mississippi State, but now this team has had plenty of time off to forget about it and move on. The Bulldogs have played tougher opponents all season and should be ready.

Smart pick

Mississippi State is definitely the more talented of the two teams and has played a lot better competition leading up to this game. The Bulldogs are also 6-3 straight up and versus the line in their past nine bowl games while the Yellow Jackets are just 2-8 SU in their last 10.

Georgia Tech is a well-coached team that was able to hang around against a Florida State squad that has struggled to stay motivated in trying to repeat as the national champion. But Mississippi State is also well-coached and was able to cover against a much better Alabama team that is the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff.

All of those factors point to the Bulldogs winning here and beating the spread.

Trends

• Georgia Tech is 5-1 SU in its last six games
• Mississippi State is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.