Houston Texans vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Indianapolis Colts own the recent divisional rivalry with the Houston Texans, winning the last four meetings both straight up and against the spread, and they've never lost at home to Houston, going a perfect 12-0 SU and 8-4 ATS. The Colts could clinch the AFC South if they can stay perfect at home against the Texans on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Colts opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 49 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.3-29.0 Colts

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans have won and covered their last two games after taking care of business at Jacksonville last week, beating the Jaguars 27-13 and covering as touchdown favorites. Houston trailed the Jags 13-10 at the half but won the second half 17-0.

The previous week, the Texans beat Tennessee 45-21, covering as touchdown favorites. So that's two games in a row in which Houston has outgained and outrushed its opponents. At 7-6, the Texans are on the outside looking in at the AFC playoff field, but they are only a game off the pace and finish the season with two home games.

They're not dead yet.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts pulled off yet another come-from-behind victory last week, scoring with less than a minute to go to beat the Browns in Cleveland 25-24. Indy trailed throughout thanks to a pair of Browns defensive scores, but quarterback Andrew Luck, as he's done many times in his short NFL career, led his offense down the field for two field goals and two touchdowns in the last 22 minutes for the victory.

The Colts couldn't quite cover the spread as three-point favorites, but they would have had they not missed a pair of two-point conversions. So Indy has won three games in a row, leads the AFC South by two games over Houston, and trails Denver and New England by only a game in the battle for a first-round bye in the AFC playoffs.

Smart pick

Indy has beaten Houston four times in a row, including a 33-28 decision back in October on the Texans' home field, and that game wasn't that close, as the Colts led 24-0 after one quarter. Indy might not pull off a repeat of that quick start Sunday, but it's still the smart betting choice in this spot.

Betting trends

• Houston is 5-13 SU in its last 18 games on the road.
• The total has gone under in six of Indianapolis's last eight games when playing Houston.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.