Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The New England Patriots are usually a pretty good bet; they proved it again last week with a win and a cover during a cross-country trip to San Diego. But the Pats have had trouble recently covering big numbers; the last four times they've been favored by nine points or more they have come up short against the spread. New England finds itself in that spot again, and against a divisional rival, for Sunday's game in Foxborough against the Dolphins.

Point spread: Patriots opened as 7.5-point favorites; the total was 48.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.4-32.6 Patriots

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins have been alternating wins and losses for six weeks now, after losing at home to Baltimore last week 28-13. So Miami is due a victory this week if that trend holds true. The Dolphins only trailed the Ravens by one score late into the game, but they couldn't quite generate a comeback.

So at 7-6 Miami is one game back of Pittsburgh, Baltimore and San Diego in the battle for AFC wild-card spots. The Dolphins only rank 21st in total offense but sixth in total defense. Finally, Miami has beaten the Patriots twice in a row, including a come-from-behind 33-20 result at home back September.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

The Patriots bounced back from that tough defeat at Green Bay two weeks ago to win at San Diego Sunday night 23-14. New England trailed 14-13 through three quarters, but it rallied to score the last 10 points of the game.

The Pats also got robbed on what should have been a defensive score in the third quarter, and one of the Chargers' scores came on a fumble return. For the game New England outgained San Diego 397-216. The Patriots rank seventh in total offense, 13th in total defense and, like Seattle, seem to be gearing up for a playoff run.

Smart Pick

Miami has won the last two meetings in this series but prior to that New England had beaten the Dolphins seven times in a row, going 5-2 ATS. And while Miami is one of those “up one week, down the next” teams, the Patriots are a consistently good bet. So the smart money in this spot lies with New England, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• Miami is 2-7 SU in its last nine games when playing New England
• New England is 2-3-1 ATS in its last six games when playing Miami

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark - follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.