Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Denver Broncos are 5-1 straight up against the rival San Diego Chargers since Peyton Manning joined the team, but the Bolts, by keeping several of those games close, have managed to split those six contests against the spread, 3-3. San Diego, clinging to hopes of a playoff appearance at 8-5 and in desperate need of a victory, host the 10-3 Broncos Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Broncos opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.0-24.7 Broncos

Why the Broncos can cover the spread

The Broncos own a three-game winning streak after toughing out a 24-17 victory over Buffalo last week. Denver built a 24-3 lead through three quarters but gave away the cover as a nine-point favorite by allowing the Bills to score twice in the fourth, the second time with less than a minute to go.

Manning only threw the ball 20 times, for just 173 yards, but he didn't need to do a whole lot, as the Broncos got a career-best 63 yards on the ground from rookie running back Juwan Thompson and 58 yards from C.J. Anderson.

So Denver leads the AFC West by two games over the Chargers and is basically tied with New England for the top seed in the AFC. Also, the Broncos are 5-1 ATS in their last six trips to San Diego, 2-0 ATS with Manning.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers had won three games in a row, including that come-from-behind victory at Baltimore two weeks ago, but lost at home Sunday night to the Patriots 23-14. San Diego led that game 14-13 through three quarters but couldn't hold off a New England rally.

The Chargers couldn't get a whole lot going offensively, but their defense did its part, especially against the run, holding the Patriots to 87 yards on the ground, 23 of which came on one play. At 8-5, San Diego is tied with Pittsburgh and Cincinnati atop the AFC wild-card race and needs a victory to holds its place.

Smart pick

Over the last six meetings in this series, Denver has beaten San Diego by an average score of 29-22. If that trend holds up this week, the Broncos will cover the spread—and there's little reason to believe it won't. So the smart money in this spot resides with Denver, minus the points.

Betting trends

• Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing on the road against San Diego.
• San Diego is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.