Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Dallas Cowboys have won each of their last half-dozen road games, going 5-1 against the spread in the process; the Philadelphia Eagles are 10-2 straight up in their last dozen home games. The NFC East might be decided when the 9-4 Eagles and 9-4 Cowboys get it on Sunday night at Lincoln Financial Field.

Point spread: Eagles opened as 3.5-point favorites; the total was 55 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.1-28.8 Eagles

Why the Cowboys can cover the spread

After getting their lunch handed to them two weeks ago in a Thanksgiving loss at home to these Eagles, the Cowboys bounced back nicely last week, beating the Bears in Chicago 41-28. Dallas scored just before halftime to break a 7-7 tie, then scored three times in the third quarter to take a 35-7 lead into the final frame.

The Cowboys ran for 194 yards against the Bears. DeMarco Murray had 179 them and is now two yards shy of 2,000 scrimmage yards for the season. Quarterback Tony Romo only had to throw the ball 26 times, completing 21, three for scores.

Dallas is now outrushing foes by 36 yards per game, and that's always a good sign when trying to win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Why the Eagles can cover the spread

The Eagles laid an egg in a home loss to Seattle last week, but prior to that, they had been on a 4-1 SU-and-ATS run. That included a 33-10 victory at Dallas on Thanksgiving, which gives Philly the head-to-head edge over the Cowboys, at least for the moment.

The Eagles outgained Dallas that game 464-267, outrushed them 256-93 and won the turnover battle 3-1. So Philadelphia is 2-1 SU against the Cowboys under Chip Kelly. The Eagles were 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS at home this season until losing to the Seahawks last week, and they're also 4-2 both SU and ATS with Mark Sanchez as the starter at quarterback.

Smart pick

Philly just beat Dallas a few weeks ago, soundly, and has the bounce-back factor on its side. So the smart choice in this spot is with the Eagles, the home team at a short spread.

Betting trends

• Dallas is 5-1 ATS in its last six games on the road.
• Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last five games at home.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.