Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Detroit Lions Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Detroit Lions look like they might be headed to the playoffs; the Tampa Bay Buccaneers do not. But Detroit is just 2-5 straight-up and 1-6 against the spread in its last seven home games against the NFC South, while Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games at the NFC North. Former division rivals renew acquaintances when the 8-4 Lions and 2-10 Bucs meet Sunday at Ford Field.

Point spread: Lions opened as 8.5-point favorites; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.6-12.0 Lions

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Bucs just lost at home to Cincinnati 14-13, missing a chance to kick a game-winning field goal in the final moments because of a too-many-men-on-the-field penalty.

So over its last six games, Tampa Bay lost in overtime to Minnesota, by five points at Cleveland, by 10 to Atlanta (a game the Bucs led into the fourth quarter), won at Washington, lost by one score at Chicago and by one point to the Bengals.

Tampa Bay has actually outgained four of its last five opponents. Finally, the Bucs just beat the Lions one year ago 24-21 also at Ford Field, picking off Detroit quarterback Matt Stafford four times.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions just snapped a two-game losing streak with a 34-17 victory over Chicago last Thursday, coming from behind to cover the spread as seven-point favorites. Detroit trailed 14-3 after one quarter, then outscored the Bears 31-3 from there.

The Lions got 91 yards and two scores from running back Joique Bell, his best game of the season, quarterback Matt Stafford hit on 34 of 45 throws for 390 yards and two scores and Calvin Johnson broke loose for 11 catches for 146 yards and those two touchdowns.

So at 8-4, the Lions are tied with Seattle for the top NFC wild-card spot and can't afford to let up.

Smart pick

Detroit is likely to win this game, but playing at home, the Lions might be a bit overrated on the betting line. And the only time this season Tampa Bay was a double-digit dog, it took the Saints to overtime in New Orleans.

So the smart choice here is with the underdog Bucs, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Tampa Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on the road

• Detroit is 5-2 SU in its last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.