New England Patriots vs. San Diego Chargers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The New England Patriots will look to bounce back from a tough road loss when they play their second straight game away from home against the San Diego Chargers on Sunday Night Football. The Patriots lost to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last week as three-point underdogs and have gone just 2-7 against the spread in their past nine games as road favorites.

Point spread: The Patriots opened as three-point favorites; the total was 50.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 36.1-26.8 Patriots

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England is 24-5 straight up in December road games since 2002 and has won 10 of the last 13 meetings with San Diego. Despite the loss to the Packers, the Patriots had a solid game plan going into the game and just needed to run the ball a bit more to limit the opposition’s possessions.

A 47-yard field goal by kicker Stephen Gostkowski would have pulled them to within 26-24 late in the game, but he missed just his second of the season, and the team’s seven-game winning streak came to an end.

New England is heading right to San Diego from Green Bay, though, and you can bet head coach Bill Belichick will have the players ready to bounce back.

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers remain in the playoff hunt after a huge 34-33 road victory against the Baltimore Ravens last week as 6.5-point underdogs and seem poised to make a run at the AFC West title as well.

They sit just one game behind the Denver Broncos in the division and host them next week, so playing the Patriots will be another good test. San Diego is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games as a home underdog, splitting the last two meetings with New England at home both SU and ATS.

The Chargers could also end up visiting the Patriots in the playoffs if they do get in and will want to make a statement.

Smart pick

San Diego does not have an easy road to try to get into the postseason, with home games against New England and Denver before visiting the San Francisco 49ers and the Kansas City Chiefs in its last two games.

The Chargers have also been anything but consistent lately, failing to cover the spread in six straight games before beating the Ravens last Sunday. That after covering each of the first five games of the season. Meanwhile, the Patriots have not lost consecutive games during the regular season since 2012, and they usually rebound from losses in a big way.

Following each of their first two losses this year, they won the next game by an average of 24.5 points. New England may not win by three touchdowns here, but it could easily win by two.

Betting trends

• New England is 7-1 SU in its last eight games.
• San Diego is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.