Kansas City Chiefs vs. Arizona Cardinals: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Arizona is 10-1 straight up (SU) and 8-3 against the spread (ATS) over its last 11 home games, and the 9-3 Cardinals, with consecutive losses, could really use a little home cooking right now. Arizona will try to retain its perch atop the NFC playoff standings when it hosts 7-5 Kansas City Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 40.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 28.4-23.0 Chiefs

Why the Chiefs can cover the spread

The Chiefs had won five games in a row and four in a row ATS until losing back-to-back to Oakland and Denver the last two weeks. Kansas City hung with Denver for a while last week but had no answer for Broncos running back C.J. Anderson.

The Chiefs are also part of that multiple-team race for AFC Wild Card berths. KC already owns victories over several good teams this season, including Miami, New England, San Diego and Seattle, and they're catching Arizona at the right time, as the Cardinals struggle at quarterback.

And sometimes in the NFL, it's not really a matter of who you play but when you play them.

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals had won six games in a row, both SU and ATS, until running into some problems with back-to-back losses to Seattle and Atlanta the last two weeks. But this is still a team with a great head coach and a pretty good defense, so it's not time to hit the panic button yet.

Arizona needs some better play out of backup quarterback Drew Stanton, but he received no help from the running game last week against the Falcons and still threw for 294 yards. Head coach Bruce Arians is good at getting a lot out of what he has to work with, so if anybody can pick this team up it's him. Maybe a return home will help.

Smart Pick

This is a tough one between two struggling teams, but the Chiefs own the advantage in the running game and at the quarterback spot; Arizona was probably playing above its head while starting 9-1. So the smart choice here is with Kansas City.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games.

• Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last six games when playing Kansas City.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.