Baltimore Ravens vs. Miami Dolphins: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Miami Dolphins are 5-2 both straight up and against the spread over their last seven games and are tied in the battle for the second AFC Wild Card berth. Coming off a come-from-behind victory Monday night over the Jets, 7-5 Miami heads home to host the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Dolphins opened as three-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.0-30.8 Dolphins

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens just gave a game away against San Diego Sunday, allowing the Chargers to score three fourth-quarter touchdowns in a 34-33 defeat. A couple of questionable defensive penalties didn't help, but still, that was a game Baltimore should have won.

The Ravens led the entire way and outrushed San Diego 125-64, as Justin Forsett came up with 100 yards for the third straight game, but just couldn't close out Philip Rivers. For the season, Baltimore now ranks fifth in the league in rushing and fourth against the run, and rankings like that are conducive to winning games and covering spreads in the NFL.

Finally, the Ravens just beat the Dolphins in South Florida last season, 26-23, outrushing the Fish 133-22.

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

The Dolphins just avoided disaster by rallying to beat the Jets in New Jersey Monday night, 16-13. Miami trailed 13-6 into the fourth quarter but scored the last 10 points of the game, icing the victory with an interception as New York tried to drive with a minute to go.

The close victory came as a welcome reversal after that tough loss out in Denver two weeks ago. And just before that the Dolphins beat Buffalo, who is also now a 7-5 team. Miami only ranks 19th in total offense but 10th in rushing and sixth in total defense.

Smart Pick

The Ravens should have won last week, while the Dolphins probably should have lost. And in the topsy-turvy world that is the NFL, fortunes are reversed on a game-to-game basis. So the smart choice here resides with Baltimore, plus the points.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing Miami
• Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.