Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Bowling Green Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

The Northern Illinois Huskies will be out for revenge when they meet the Bowling Green Falcons in the Mid-American Conference Championship Game for the second year in a row Friday at Detroit’s Ford Field. The West Division champion Huskies entered last year’s MAC title game unbeaten at 12-0 before getting upset by the East Division champion Falcons 47-27 as three-point favorites.

Point spread: The Huskies opened as 2.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.7-25.7 Huskies

Why the Northern Illinois Huskies can cover the spread

If revenge was not enough of a factor, the Huskies are quite simply a much better team than the Falcons this year, and that shows in the spread. Like Bowling Green with Jordan Lynch, they also do not have to deal with Matt Johnson, who shredded their defense for 393 yards and five touchdowns en route to the MAC title.

Northern Illinois should be able to contain his replacement James Knapke, as he has thrown only 12 touchdowns with 10 interceptions this season for the Falcons. Knapke has not thrown a touchdown pass in either of the team’s last two games, both of which have resulted in losses.

Why the Bowling Green Falcons can cover the spread

Bowling Green did it last season and can do it again here. The Falcons do not have to contend with Heisman Trophy finalist Lynch, the NIU quarterback who passed for 219 yards and rushed for 126 more in last year’s game, accounting for all three touchdowns.

Despite losing their quarterback Johnson to a season-ending hip injury in a 59-31 loss to the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers back on August 29, they were still able to win the MAC East with a 5-3 record and are bowl-eligible with a 7-5 mark overall.

Bowling Green has the experience of last year’s victory against Northern Illinois to draw from here and should be able to use that to its advantage.

Smart Pick

The Huskies are riding a six-game winning streak into Ford Field and needed to win their last two games in order to beat out the Toledo Rockets for their return trip to Detroit. Despite not covering the 3.5-point spread in a 27-24 home win over Toledo, Northern Illinois beat the line in those two following games, including last week’s 31-21 road victory against the Western Michigan Broncos as an eight-point underdog.

Neither of these teams has really fared well ATS in MAC play this season, although the Huskies have covered three of their past four. With revenge also working in their favor this time around, look for Northern Illinois to not only win the MAC Championship Game for the third time in four years, but also cover the spread.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in five of Northern Illinois's last five games
• Bowling Green is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.