Kansas State Wildcats vs. Baylor Bears Betting Odds, Analysis and Big 12 Pick

It's a mess at the top of the Big 12 with three teams, Baylor, TCU and Kansas State, all tied at 7-1 in conference play. Two of those teams still harbor hopes of making the College Football Playoffs, and one of those teams is the 10-1 Bears, who host the 9-2 Wildcats Saturday night.

Point spread: This game was OFF the board early in the week at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 47.4-33.6 Bears

Why the Kansas State Wildcats can cover the spread

The Wildcats are 7-1 both straight up and against the spread over their last eight games, after beating rival Kansas last week 51-13, covering as a 26-point favorite. Kansas State led 31-6 at the half, removing all doubt as to the outcome of the game and eventually outgained the Jayhawks 505-197.

The Wildcats' only two losses this season came by a touchdown against Auburn, and at TCU, and they've already won games at Oklahoma and at West Virginia. Bill Snyder is a great coach, one of those guys who always gets more out of what he has to work with, so Kansas State is a live dog in this spot.

Why the Baylor Bears can cover the spread

The Bears just overcame upset-minded Texas Tech last week 48-46, surviving an injury to quarterback Bryce Petty and a furious Red Raiders comeback attempt, hanging on to both the victory and their national championship aspirations.

With a win this Saturday, combined with its amazing, come-from-behind victory over TCU back in October, Baylor would claim the Big 12 title, which would give it a chance to overtake the Horned Frogs in the
College Football Playoff Rankings.

Since losing at West Virginia the Bears are 4-0, averaging 51 points per game. And if Petty can't go, at least backup quarterback Seth Russell has taken a few snaps already this season, compiling an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Smart Pick

Art Briles and his Bears are 3-1 SU against Snyder and his Wildcats, but Kansas State is 3-1 ATS in that span. Also, Baylor isn't quite the monster it was last year, and its quarterback situation, as of early this week, remained up in the air. So the smart choice here is with the Wildcats.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone over in four of Kansas State's last five games when playing Baylor
• Baylor is 15-3 ATS in its last 18 games at home

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.