Iowa State Cyclones vs. TCU Horned Frogs Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

The TCU Horned Frogs sit on the verge of making the College Football Playoff. At 10-1 straight up and 9-2 against the spread, the Horned Frogs will finish out their regular season at home Saturday afternoon against 2-9 Iowa State.

The Horned Frogs are big favorites for this one, and covering the spread wouldn't be a bad way to impress the playoff committee.

Point spread: The Horned Frogs opened as 33-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 42.2-17.9 Horned Frogs

Why the Iowa State Cyclones can cover the spread

The Cyclones are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS over their last five games, but they've had chances to make some cash.

Two weeks ago, ISU led Texas Tech by 10 points in the third quarter and by four points late into the fourth quarter before giving up the game-winning score. And last week, as 10-point dogs, the Cyclones led West Virginia 21-7 in the second quarter before giving up 30 of the last 33 points in a 37-24 defeat.

If Iowa State can get a full 60-minute effort, continued good play from quarterback Sam Richardson, perhaps 100 yards from running back Aaron Wimberly and some containment on defense, it could easily cover this spread.

Why the TCU Horned Frogs can cover the spread

The Frogs not only took care of business last week at Texas, but they also earned the necessary style points to stick right near the No. 4 spot in the College Football Playoff rankings. TCU led 20-3 through three quarters but, perhaps sensing it hadn't done quite enough, scored four times in the fourth for a gaudy final score of 48-10.

Quarterback Trevone Boykin accounted for 280 yards and three scores, and the defense held the 'Horns to 290 yards while forcing six turnovers. The Frogs have already won five games this season by 30 or more points, and they know the committee will be watching Saturday's game closely.

Smart pick

Motivation means everything in this spot, and the Frogs can't afford to call off the dogs. So the smart money here resides with TCU, giving the big points.

Betting trends

• Iowa State is 1-4 SU in its last five games when playing TCU.
• TCU is 5-0 ATS in its last five games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.