Fresno State vs. Boise State Betting Odds, College Football Pick

What started out as a rough season for the Fresno State Bulldogs has turned into a shot at the conference title. They meet the Boise State Broncos in Saturday’s Mountain West Championship Game at Bronco Stadium.

The West Division champion Bulldogs suffered through two three-game skids this year but also won three in a row twice, going 5-1 against the spread during the two different winning streaks.

Point spread: The Broncos opened as 17-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 30.3-20.6 Broncos

Why the Fresno State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Fresno State has nothing to lose here. It is already bowl-eligible with six wins and is content to finish the season on a positive note by making it to this game.

The Bulldogs played Mountain Division champion Boise State tough on the road back on October 17, losing 37-27 but covering the spread as 18-point underdogs. All looked lost for them when they fell to the Wyoming Cowboys 45-17 two weeks later as 15.5-point favorites.

But Fresno was able to come together and end the regular season with three straight wins, including two as an underdog. The Bulldogs are 7-3 straight up and against the spread in their last 10 road games against Mountain West opponents.

Why the Boise State Broncos can cover the spread 

The Broncos have absolutely dominated Fresno State over the past 14 meetings, going 12-2 SU and ATS. One of those non-covers came earlier this year, but you have to go back to 2005 to find the previous time they failed to beat the number against the Bulldogs. Boise has also won its last seven games overall, winning the past two by a combined score of 113-33 and easily covering both.

During their winning streak, the Broncos are averaging nearly 51 points per game, while Fresno has scored more than 35 only twice all season. The over cashed in all of those games for Boise, and if that trend continues, the Bulldogs will struggle to keep up this time in a shootout.

Smart pick

The Broncos seem to have finally found their groove late in the season and should be able to win this rematch by at least three touchdowns.

They have superior talent and will be facing a team that is just happy to be here. Fresno is way too inconsistent to trust in this spot and has not covered two straight in the series over the past 13 years, so why would that change here?

Keep in mind that Boise dominated the Bulldogs in the first meeting earlier this year despite only winning by 10 points, outgaining them 492-313 in total yardage and 24-12 in first downs. If that happens again, the final margin will at least double on the scoreboard, so look for the Broncos to cover at home.

Betting trends 

• The total has gone over in five of Fresno State's last seven games when playing Boise State.
• The total has gone over in five of Boise State's last six games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.