Florida State Seminoles vs. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Betting Odds, Analysis

Florida State owns a 28-game winning streak, but those wins have been getting harder and harder to come by. Last week, the Seminoles just squeaked by a poor Florida team, and now they're only 3-9 against the spread on the season.

And even though the 'Noles are 12-0 overall, many people are wondering if Florida State is assured a spot in the College Football Playoff. To be safe, it has to take care of business when it runs into 10-2 Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship Game on Saturday night in Charlotte.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 3.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 39.0-26.9 Seminoles

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

The Seminoles are not the powerhouse they were last season, but they just keep winning. Last week, it was a 24-19 decision over the Gators. FSU outrushed Florida 181-113, but four interceptions by Jameis Winston kept the Gators close.

In what was probably the key play of the game, the Seminoles defense came up big. Down 9-0 with Florida threatening again, linebacker Terrance Smith picked off a Treon Harris pass and rambled 94 yards for a score, turning the tide. Florida State even built a 21-9 lead, although it couldn't quite hang on for the cover.

Why the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets can cover the spread

The Ramblin' Wreck are the surprise champions of the Coastal Division, and they're coming off a huge overtime rivalry victory over Georgia last Saturday. Georgia Tech tied the game on a 53-yard field goal at the buzzer and then won it 30-24 in overtime, snapping a five-game losing streak in the series against the Bulldogs.

The Yellow Jackets ride a five-game winning streak both SU and ATS into Saturday's conference title contest. Georgia Tech is 8-4 ATS on the season and has outrushed every opponent. Outrushing Florida State, which is averaging only 131 yards per game on the ground, might go a long way toward not only covering this spread but also pulling off the upset.

Smart pick

The Seminoles have been living dangerously this season, winning a bunch of close games and having to come from behind on an almost weekly basis. One of these times, they're going to come up short. And going against a team that can run the ball like the Wreck should be cause for concern.

The smart money in this spot resides with Georgia Tech, plus the points.

Betting trends

• Florida State is 28-0 SU in its last 28 games.
• Georgia Tech is 2-9 SU in its last 11 games when playing Florida State.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.