NFL Playoff Scenarios 2014-15: AFC, NFC Picture, Wild-Card Picks Before Week 14

With only four weeks remaining in the NFL regular season, the most common and highly debated narrative is in regard to the playoff picture.

Who's in? Who's out?

Who knows? After all, plenty can change between now and Week 17.

What we're able to do right now is speculate. Luckily, we live in the information age where plenty of highly sophisticated computers can dissect playoff scenarios for us and let us know which teams are the most likely, and least likely, to gain entrance to the coveted postseason.

Now that your interest is officially piqued, here's a look at the current playoff picture, every wild-card contender's chances of earning a postseason berth and some Week 14 scenarios to keep a keen eye on.

Playoff Picture Prior to Week 14

Speaking of the bevy of information available at our fingertips, social media sites like Twitter are a great source to find exactly what you're looking for. In this instance, the kind folks at the NFL have already put together a graphic of the league's playoff picture entering Week 14:

While that graphic does feature the current 12 playoff teams, it's ordered in more of a power-rankings style. Here's a look at the exact seeds for every team, followed by a short list of wild-card contenders:

AFC Seed	Team	NFC Seed	Team
1	New England Patriots (9-3)	1	Arizona Cardinals (9-3)
2	Denver Broncos (9-3)	2	Green Bay Packers (9-3)
3	Cincinnati Bengals (8-3-1)	3	Philadelphia Eagles (9-3)
4	Indianapolis Colts (8-4)	4	Atlanta Falcons (5-7)
5	San Diego Chargers (8-4)	5	Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
6	Miami Dolphins (7-5)	6	Detroit Lions (8-4)

AFC wild-card race: Kansas City Chiefs (7-5), Buffalo Bills (7-5), Baltimore Ravens (7-5), Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5), Cleveland Browns (7-5), Houston Texans (6-6).

NFC wild-card race: Dallas Cowboys (8-4), San Francisco 49ers (7-5), New Orleans Saints (5-7), Chicago Bears (5-7), Minnesota Vikings (5-7), St. Louis Rams (5-7).

Wild-Card Chances

So, we already took a look at every team that's currently still in play for a playoff spot. That brings us to our next burning question: What are each team's chances of actually reaching the postseason? It's a legitimate inquiry.

That's where those mega-computers come in handy. PredictionMachine.com uses software called the Predictalator and simulates every impending NFL contest 50,000 times to ultimately give each team a percentage of making the playoffs. Sounds neat, doesn't it? Well, here's what it figured out:

AFC Team	Chances	NFC Team	Chances
Denver Broncos	98.6%	Green Bay Packers	97.8%
Indianapolis Colts	96.3%	Philadelphia Eagles	90.6%
New England Patriots	95.4%	Detroit Lions	85.6%
Cincinnati Bengals	76.7%	Seattle Seahawks	82.2%
San Diego Chargers	51.2%	Arizona Cardinals	68.2%
Kansas City Chiefs	43.3%	New Orleans Saints	68.0%
Miami Dolphins	36.2%	Dallas Cowboys	41.8%
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.0%	San Francisco 49ers	32.8%
Baltimore Ravens	29.3%	Atlanta Falcons	27.8%
Cleveland Browns	16.7%	St. Louis Rams	0.6%
Houston Texans	11.4%	Minnesota Vikings	0.4%
Buffalo Bills	8.9%	Chicago Bears	0.3%

This simulation is rerun every week, and based on the unpredictable nature of the NFL, we can certainly expect to see some major alterations in the wake of Week 14.

Playoff Scenarios to Watch

NFC Wild-Card Contenders in Action

Week 14 kicks off with some intriguing wild-card action, as the Dallas Cowboys take on the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football. While the Cowboys are 8-4, they are currently outside the NFC's top six due to tiebreakers. Meanwhile the Bears much basically win out to keep any hopes of the postseason alive.

The Seattle Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles will be facing off Sunday afternoon in a game that will have plenty of postseason fallout. If Philadelphia loses and Dallas wins, the Eagles will still maintain the lead, but they must face Dallas again in Week 15. Seattle could claim the top spot in the NFC West with a win and a Kansas City Chiefs win over the Arizona Cardinals.

The San Francisco 49ers will be watching this unfold as they look to right the ship against the Oakland Raiders.

Battle for the No. 1 Seeds

In the AFC, the New England Patriots have the advantage to lock down home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, but they don't have much of a cushion. The Denver Broncos are also 9-3 and hold the No. 2 seed due to a head-to-head loss. This week, the Patriots are on the road in San Diego, and the Broncos are at home against the Buffalo Bills.

Neither contest is a sure thing.

In the NFC, the Cardinals are in the same precarious position as the Patriots. They cling to the No. 1 seed, but not by much. Arizona has a tough home test against the Kansas City Chiefs this week. Meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers are at home against an inconsistent Atlanta Falcons team. If both of those teams lose, the Eagles would claim the top spot with a win over Seattle.

AFC Wild-Card Mayhem

With so many AFC teams legitimately in the hunt for a wild-card spot, many Week 14 games have postseason implications. The biggest of all may be between the 7-5 Baltimore Ravens and 7-5 Miami Dolphins. Currently, the Dolphins own the No. 6 seed, but a loss by either team would be a major setback. There will definitely be a playoff atmosphere for this game in Miami.

In an AFC North clash, the Pittsburgh Steelers hit the road to take on the Cincinnati Bengals. If the Bengals win, the Steelers will have a difficult time keeping up in both the division and the wild-card race. However, if the Steelers win, the Bengals lose much of their cushion atop the division heading into Week 15.

The Cleveland Browns will try to usurp the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, but that may be easier said than done due to the team's quarterback controversy. Still, if the Browns pull off the upset, they will gain significant ground in the wild-card race, while the Colts could lose much of their comfortable lead over the Houston Texans in the AFC South.