Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets Betting Odds, Analysis and NFL Pick

The Miami Dolphins will be away from home for the second consecutive week when they visit the New York Jets in an AFC East matchup on Monday Night Football.

The Dolphins are coming off a 39-36 loss to the Denver Broncos last week but covered the spread as 6.5-point road underdogs, and they will be facing a Jets team that was blown out 38-3 in another divisional game against the Buffalo Bills on Monday as 2.5-point dogs.

Monday night point spread: The Dolphins opened as four-point favorites, but bettors have thrown a ton of money behind them, and the line was 7.5 points as of Friday; the total was 41.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.8-9.4 Dolphins

Why the Dolphins can cover the spread

Despite losing to the Broncos last Sunday, Miami proved it can compete with the best teams in the NFL on the road. New York is not one of them and has been absolutely abysmal this season no matter where the game is played.

The Jets got a chance to avoid a trip to snowy Buffalo last week and still got pounded by the Bills 38-3 at Detroit’s Ford Field as 2.5-point underdogs. Their home field has not given them any real advantage, even though both of their wins this season have come at MetLife Stadium.

The Dolphins have won five of their last six meetings with New York both straight up and against the spread, and they beat the Jets on the road last year 23-3 as one-point underdogs.

Why the Jets can cover the spread

Both New York teams have really struggled this season, and this one has been brutal ATS too, with a 2-8-1 mark through the first 11 games. However, both covers for the Jets have taken place in the past five games, so they at least have that going for them.

The biggest issue for the team right now is at quarterback. Michael Vick struggled mightily last week in the loss to Buffalo, and bettors know Geno Smith is not the answer either.

The best way for New York to cover the spread in this spot is to focus more on the running game and not allow Smith to make mistakes by limiting throws.

And then there is that ugly Monday Night Football streak; the Dolphins have lost and failed to cover five in a row.

Smart pick

The Jets are a team that should definitely be faded more than played down the stretch of the regular season. New York head coach Rex Ryan appears to be on his way out, and his players probably already know that, which is why they look so hopeless on the field right now.

On the other hand, Miami has a lot to play for and cannot afford to lose this game with tough matchups against the Baltimore Ravens and New England Patriots on deck.

This is a must-win situation for the Dolphins if they are going to make the playoffs, so bet on them to come through and beat the Jets by more than a touchdown.

Betting trends

• Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
• NY Jets is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games.
• The Dolphins have lost and failed to cover their past five Monday night games. 

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.