Cincinnati Bengals vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

After a midseason lull, Cincinnati is back on the winning track, coming off a pair of road victories (both covers) at New Orleans and Houston.

The 7-3-1 Bengals will shoot for a third straight road victory when they visit Tampa Bay to take on the 2-9 Buccaneers on Sunday afternoon.

It's the second week in a row the Bengals will face a team against whom they have lost six straight (last week, 0-6 ATS vs. Houston; this week, 0-6 SU vs. Tampa).

Point spread: The Bengals opened as four-point favorites; the total was 44 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 23.4-14.2 Bengals

Why the Bengals can cover the spread

The Bengals are 4-1 SU and 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games after winning at Houston last week 22-13, taking that game outright as three-point dogs. Cincy outgained the Texans 372-248, outrushed them 139-64 and won time of possession by a lopsided 39-21 margin. That's how you win games and cover spreads in the NFL.

Also, wide receiver A.J. Green had his second big game in a row, catching 12 balls for 121 yards after catching six balls for 127 in the win at New Orleans the week before. At 7-3-1, the Bengals sit in first place in the AFC North, a half-game ahead of every other team in the division.

Why the Buccaneers can cover the spread

The Buccaneers have lost six of their last seven contests, but unlike earlier this season, they've been competitive recently.

A month ago, Tampa lost in overtime to Minnesota. The Bucs lost by five at Cleveland. Then, they led Atlanta into the fourth quarter before fading. They won at Washington. Last week, they led Chicago at halftime and scored to get within eight points with five minutes to go before running out of gas.

Of the Bucs' nine losses this season, six have come by one score or less. With a little improvement, and perhaps some luck, Tampa might start winning a few close games.

Smart pick

Cincinnati is playing to preserve a playoff spot, while Tampa is playing for next year. But while the Bengals own the edge on offense, the Bucs own a slight edge on defense.

And since returning from a thumb injury Tampa quarterback Josh McCown has thrown for 930 yards in three games. Lovie Smith should get this program headed in the right direction eventually—perhaps this weekend.

The smart money here resides with the home-dog Bucs.

Betting trends

• Cincinnati is 0-6 SU run versus Tampa Bay.
• Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last seven games.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.