Oregon Ducks vs. Oregon State Beavers Betting Odds, Pick, Trends

Oregon has ruled in the recent Civil War rivalry with Oregon State, winning the last six meetings straight up, going 3-2-1 against the spread.

The 10-1 Ducks are also two victories away from making the College Football Playoff. However, the 5-6 Beavers would love nothing more than to spoil Oregon's season and become bowl-eligible in the process.

Oregon and Oregon State battle for the 118th time Saturday night in Corvallis.

Point Spread: The Ducks opened as 17.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark, but were two points higher as of Thursday. (Line updates and matchup report)

College Football Pick, via Odds Shark Computer: 43.1-28.5 Ducks

Why the Oregon Ducks Can Cover the Spread

The Ducks have won and covered six games in a row, after beating Colorado 44-10, cashing in as 33-point favorites. Oregon led 30-3 at the half and shut the Buffs out in the fourth quarter, preserving the cover.

So the Ducks, with a win this week and a victory in the Pac-12 Championship Game, would secure a spot in the four-team playoff. Back in September, Oregon only beat Washington State by a touchdown, then lost at home to Arizona.

Since then, the Ducks have beaten UCLA, Washington, Cal, Stanford, Utah and Colorado—four of which will go to a bowl—by an average score of 50-24.

Why the Oregon State Beavers Can Cover the Spread

The Beavers have been a disappointment this season, at just 3-8 ATS, but they showed they could still be a pain in someone's behind when they upset Arizona a couple weeks ago 35-27, winning outright as seven-point home dogs.

And the Wildcats just happen to be the only team to beat the Ducks this season. Oregon State suffered a letdown last week, losing to Washington 37-13, but that just puts it on schedule for a rebound this week.

If the Beavers can move the ball with quarterback Sean Mannion, avoid the turnovers and the big plays and ride some home-field emotion, they could give Oregon a scare.

Smart Pick

Oregon is playing for big stakes, while Oregon State is playing for pride. In this spot, that might give the Beavers an edge.

Also, while style points still come into play in determining this year's four-team playoff field, the Ducks really only need two victories and they're in. Finally, Oregon State gave Oregon a heck of a scare last year in Eugene, only succumbing when Marcus Mariota threw a touchdown pass to Josh Huff with 30 seconds to go in a 36-35 Ducks victory.

So the smart choice here is with the home dog, plus the points, in spite of its recent 1-6 ATS run in conference home games.

Betting Trends

• The total has gone under in five of Oregon's last seven games on the road.
• Oregon State is 2-7 ATS in its last nine games at home.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.