Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Arizona and Atlanta have met each of the last two seasons, with the Cardinals covering the spread in both of those games.

Coming off just its second loss of the season, 9-2 Arizona hopes to bounce back when it visits 4-7 Atlanta Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick 'em, but the public quickly bet the Cardinals to -2.5; the total was 44.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 26.2-19.6 Cardinals

Why the Cardinals can cover the spread

The Cardinals, without quarterback Carson Palmer, just had their six-game straight-up and against-the-spead winning streaks snapped in a 19-3 loss at Seattle, missing the cover as seven-point dogs.

But Arizona still owns the best record in the NFC, and along with the Chiefs and Colts, the Cards have been the best team in the league to bet on so far, going 8-3 ATS. Offensively, the Cardinals won't scare anyone, but defensively, they rank 11th overall, third against the run and their plus-10 turnover margin ranks as third best.

Finally, Arizona just beat Atlanta last season 27-13, winning the ground battle by a 201-27 margin.

Why the Falcons can cover the spread

The Falcons just lost at home to Cleveland 26-24, but they're close to owning a four-game winning streak. A month ago, they blew a 21-0 lead and lost to Detroit 22-21. Then they beat Tampa and Carolina back-to-back on the road. And last week, they rallied to take a one-point lead over the Browns with under a minute to go, only to allow Cleveland to drive 61 yards to the game-winning field goal.

Still, at 4-7, Atlanta is tied for first place in the NFC South with New Orleans. The Falcons rank 12th in total offense, thanks in large part to quarterback Matt Ryan and the wide receiver combo of Julio Jones and Roddy White, who have caught 128 balls for 1,600 yards and nine scores.

Smart pick

Atlanta owns the edge on offense, while Arizona holds the advantage on defense. And if the Cardinals can get a little better play from backup quarterback Drew Stanton, they should stand a good chance Sunday. So the smart play in this spot is with Arizona, giving the points.

Betting trends

• Arizona is 5-2 SU in its last seven games on the road and 3-0 ATS as road favorites.
• Atlanta is 2-6 SU in its last eight games.

All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark. Follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.