Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. Mississippi Rebels Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

In a game that looked like it would be important for both teams a little more than a month ago, the Mississippi State Bulldogs opened as small road favorites against the Ole Miss Rebels for Saturday’s Egg Bowl.

The Rebels have seen their season fall apart, though, over the past five weeks, dropping three of their last four games and going 0-4 against the spread.

Meanwhile, the Bulldogs remain in the national-championship picture after improving to 10-1 with a 51-0 rout of the Vanderbilt Commodores last week as 29.5-point home favorites.

Point spread: This game opened as a pick'em, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.6-25.8 Bulldogs

Why the Mississippi State Bulldogs can cover the spread

Mississippi State obviously has a lot more to lose here since a loss would essentially end the team’s bid for a spot in the College Football Playoff. The Bulldogs rebounded nicely from their only setback of the season, blanking Vanderbilt last Saturday and covering the spread for the second time in as many weeks.

Mississippi State has won four of the last five meetings with Ole Miss both straight up and against the spread, and the school has also enjoyed a lot of success against SEC opponents on the road lately with a 4-1 mark vs. the line in its past five games under that scenario.

The Bulldogs have played well defensively as well recently, allowing an average of just 12.8 points over their last four games.

Why the Mississippi Rebels can cover the spread

Despite losing three times in four games, the Rebels can still ruin Mississippi State’s season simply by winning the Egg Bowl on Saturday. They will be treating this annual intrastate rivalry game like their national championship, knowing how much it means to the Bulldogs.

Handing Mississippi State a loss in this spot would allow Ole Miss to end the regular season on a positive note and still put the team in solid position to play in a good bowl game.

Before last week’s 30-0 loss to the Arkansas Razorbacks as three-point road favorites, the Rebels had seen their previous two setbacks decided by a combined seven points, and they started the season with a 7-0 mark SU and ATS.

Smart Pick

Ole Miss still had a lot to play for a week ago, as a win over the Razorbacks would have made this a much bigger game. Instead, the Rebels are left to wonder what might have been had they figured out a way to win at least one of the three games they have lost.

Their state of mind cannot help but be a little off after getting blanked by Arkansas, while Mississippi State will be very focused on getting a victory here to help its cause in the College Football Playoff rankings.

The Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games while Ole Miss is clearly reeling and will have a difficult time recovering from this rough stretch. Bet Mississippi State to come through instead as road chalk.

Betting Trends

• Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games on the road
• Mississippi is 6-1 SU in its last seven games when playing at home against Mississippi State

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark, all quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line movement updates and get the free odds tracker app.