Florida Gators vs. Florida State Seminoles Betting Odds, Analysis, Pick

The Florida State Seminoles will put their 27-game winning streak on the line when they host the Florida Gators in their annual intrastate rivalry game Saturday.

The Seminoles continue to find ways to win after they pulled off a 20-17 victory against the Boston College Eagles in the final seconds last week yet failed to cover the spread for the ninth time in 12 games as 16.5-point favorites.

Point spread: The Seminoles opened as 10-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (line updates and matchup report).

College football pick, via Odds Shark computer: 40.0-31.3 Gators

Why the Florida Gators can cover the spread

The Gators have played fairly well lately outside of a surprising 23-20 loss to the South Carolina Gamecocks and former head coach Steve Spurrier as 6.5-point home favorites two weeks ago. They are 3-0 straight up and against the spread in three other games over the past four weeks, including a 52-3 rout of the Eastern Kentucky Colonels last Saturday as 30.5-point favorites.

Let’s be honest: Covering the spread against Florida State has not been terribly difficult this season, as Boston College proved last week. The Seminoles play to the level of their competition and might be overlooking Florida here.

Why the Florida State Seminoles can cover the spread

Florida State has not covered many games this year, but when motivated, this is a team that can certainly turn it on. The last seven meetings between these rivals have all been decided by double digits, with 14 points the smallest margin of victory during that stretch.

The Seminoles have won three of the last four games against the Gators both SU and ATS, and six of their 11 wins this season have been decided by 11 points or more. While that might not sound like a lot, it backs up the point that Florida State is still capable of winning big when needed, and this might be one of those games.

Smart pick

Has Florida been playing hard for outgoing head coach Will Muschamp down the stretch? That argument may have been a bit more valid had the Gators beaten the Gamecocks and entered this matchup on a four-game winning streak. Instead, you could argue the only impressive win they have all season came against the Georgia Bulldogs, which happened two weeks before Muschamp was fired.

In other words, that theory does not hold true. Ironically, losing at home to their former coach was the final straw, and now Florida is just riding it out. The Seminoles cannot afford to mess up here and could use an impressive victory. Bet on Florida State to cover this one easily.

Betting trends

• Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five games on the road.
• Florida State is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games.

All point spread and lines data courtesy of Odds Shark. All quotes gathered firsthand unless otherwise noted. Check out Twitter for injury and line-movement updates, and get the free odds tracker app.