Latavius Murray's Hype Makes Him Bad Fantasy Option for Week 13 vs. Rams

There haven't been a lot of fantasy options worth getting excited about for the Oakland Raiders this season. That changed in a big way last week with Latavius Murray going off against the Kansas City Chiefs, at least while he was still in the game. 

Now, thanks to the overwhelming hype machine around Murray in fantasy circles, his value has gone from completely off the radar to overrated. The 23-year-old was a great story against the Chiefs, but let's not start kidding ourselves into believing there's something bigger going on. 

Week 13 is especially a bad time to start putting Murray in your fantasy lineup. Even though the overall numbers don't suggest it, the St. Louis Rams are one of the worst matchups for any fantasy running back right now. 

Take a look at how the Rams have fared in their last four games against the opposing team's No. 1 running back:

Opponent	Player	Rushing Stat Line	Fantasy Points
Week 9 at SF	Frank Gore	14 carries, 49 yards	4
Week 10 at AZ	Andre Ellington	18 carries, 23 yards, 1 TD	9
Week 11 vs. DEN	C.J. Anderson	9 carries, 29 yards	10
Week 12 at SD	Ryan Mathews	12 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD	16

Ryan Mathews' performance stands out in this group to the point where he's the exception who proves the rule. The Rams have been doing a tremendous job on defense in the second half of this season, especially considering the turmoil they have dealt with at quarterback.

Also adding into the Murray hype machine is the fact he scored two rushing touchdowns against a Kansas City defense that hadn't allowed a touchdown on the ground all year coming into the game and that he set an NFL record in the process, per Elias Sports Bureau (h/t ESPN Stats & Info):

Anytime there is an off-the-radar fantasy player who sets an NFL record, the overwhelming impulse is to jump on the bandwagon. It's a dangerous game to play because there's a reason that these players are so obscure. 

If you want proof, look no further than two weeks ago. Jonas Gray was even more obscure than Murray, floating around New England's roster looking for something to do. Bill Belichick finally put his rookie running back in against Indianapolis, allowing Gray to run for 201 yards and four touchdowns. 

Fantasy pundits were all over Gray. Tristan H. Cockcroft of ESPN.com, who deserves credit for being reserved in his praise of Gray, was someone to add right away:

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And for those wondering whether this represents true clarity in the Patriots' backfield, remember that the team is notorious for changing course at the position quickly and unexpectedly. But then there's this: Gray has handled 55 percent (70 of 127) of his team's rushing attempts during his four active games, 60 percent (67 of 112) in the Patriots' past three games and 84 percent (38 of 45) in a Week 11 game fresh off the bye, when one might think that competitors Shane Vereen and Brandon Bolden would have their freshest legs at this stage.

"

What happened the next week? Gray never saw the field against Detroit. He was sent home from the team's practice on Friday after his alarm didn't go off, though Michael Hurley of CBS Boston wrote that likely wasn't the only reason Gray was absent or probably even the main reason:

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But I can tell you this: Jonas Gray was not benched for an entire football game because he was late to practice.

Jonas Gray was benched because he’s Jonas Gray.

He had one incredible game on a night when his offensive line opened up massive holes and the demoralized defense no longer cared to get in his way in the second half. He did a great job, of course, but one night does not turn a kid into Barry Sanders.

"

Belichick might be a bad example to use because he seems to love trolling fantasy owners with the way he uses running backs, but look around the league, and you see there are players like Murray and Gray popping up all over. 

When was the last time you thought about Bobby Rainey in Tampa Bay? Are you still glad about picking up Kirk Cousins to be your quarterback? Are you still happy about grabbing Terrance West after he ran for 100 yards in Week 1?

None of this is to say that Murray won't eventually turn into a solid fantasy running back. Right now, he definitely looks like the best option for Oakland, but he's largely being judged off of four carries. There's also the question of how healthy he is at the moment.

Remember, Murray left the Kansas City game with a concussion. Scott Bair of Comcast SportsNet Bay Area reported Murray was at practice on Wednesday for the Raiders and is still working through the NFL's concussion protocol:

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His practice activity states that he has passed a few portions of the NFL’s concussion-related protocol. While he has been cleared to practice, it remains uncertain whether he has been cleared to play on Sunday against the St. Louis Rams.

"

So our final re-examination of Murray prior to Week 13 has him being judged off four carries against Kansas City, going up against one of the best defensive lines in the NFL and coming off a concussion. 

Murray deserves to be on a fantasy roster right now, but it's not time to insert him in the starting lineup. This is a crucial time with most standard leagues starting their playoffs next week. You can't afford to gamble away points this week, otherwise you may never get the opportunity to capitalize on the rewards later. 

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