NFL Picks Week 13: Examining Recent Odds and Expert Predictions

I hope you're ready for football, because some of the best matchups in Week 13 come right away Thursday.

While watching football on Thanksgiving is as much of a holiday tradition as eating turkey and listening to your weird uncle's stories, the games are usually just blowouts by the Dallas Cowboys and whichever team got to face the Detroit Lions.

Fortunately, this year should be different, with all three games having serious playoff implications.

With Sunday having four more games between teams with winning records, this has a chance to be one of the best weeks of the NFL season. Here is a look at picks and analysis from myself as well as some of the top experts around the web.

Away	Predicted Score	Home	Pick ATS*
Chicago Bears	14-24	Detroit Lions	DET -7
Philadelphia Eagles	28-27	Dallas Cowboys	PHI +3
Seattle Seahawks	10-13	San Francisco 49ers	SF -1
Oakland Raiders	17-21	St. Louis Rams	OAK +7
Cleveland Browns	14-20	Buffalo Bills	BUF -2.5
New Orleans Saints	24-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -4.5
San Diego Chargers	20-23	Baltimore Ravens	SD +6
Carolina Panthers	21-27	Minnesota Vikings	MIN -3
New York Giants	28-34	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAX +2.5
Washington Redskins	10-31	Indianapolis Colts	IND -10
Cincinnati Bengals	24-13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	CIN -3.5
Tennessee Titans	14-24	Houston Texans	HOU -6.5
Arizona Cardinals	20-7	Atlanta Falcons	ARI -2.5
New England Patriots	35-31	Green Bay Packers	NE +3
Denver Broncos	28-20	Kansas City Chiefs	DEN -1
Miami Dolphins	23-6	New York Jets	MIA -6.5

Game	Matt Miller	Mike Freeman	Matt Bowen	Michael Schottey	Chris Simms
CHI at GB	DET	DET	DET	DET	DET
PHI at DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL
SEA at SF	SF	SF	SF	SF	SF
WAS at IND	IND	IND	IND	IND	IND
TEN at HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU
CLE at BUF	CLE	CLE	BUF	CLE	BUF
SD at BAL	BAL	BAL	SD	BAL	BAL
NYG at JAX	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG	NYG
CIN at TB	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN	CIN
OAK at STL	STL	STL	STL	STL	STL
NO at PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT	PIT
CAR at MIN	MIN	MIN	CAR	CAR	MIN
ARI at ATL	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI
NE at GB	NE	GB	GB	GB	NE
DEN at KC	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN	DEN
MIA at NYJ	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA

Full view of Bleacher Report's expert picks available here.  

Top Games

San Francisco 49ers (-1) vs. Seattle Seahawks

This has become the best rivalry in the NFL over the past few seasons, with both teams ensuring every game against each other will be a dogfight.

The big story, as it has been with these teams in recent years, is the effort by each defense. The Seahawks and 49ers rank No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in total yards allowed this season. While each side has lost key players, the remaining players continue to step up and ensure more team success.

Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com is expecting an extremely low-scoring battle:

The question is not just which offense can step up to score points, but which team can make the plays when it matters.

Still, ESPN.com's Paul Gutierrez notes some impressive stats while picking the 49ers to win:

"

Granted, this will be the first meeting between the teams at Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium, but the Niners have won five straight games at home against the Seahawks in this series. ... Usually, you throw stats out the window in such rivalry games. Not this time. Not with the Niners needing this victory more, what with the Seahawks getting the rematch in Seattle in two weeks.

"

Competing on Thanksgiving night with the pressure on, San Francisco should be able to come through in front of the home crowd. You can be certain the fans will make it a raucous atmosphere, helping Colin Kaepernick and Co. put this team over the top in a close game.

New England Patriots (+3) at Green Bay Packers

There is very little not to like in this matchup. This already seems like a potential Super Bowl preview, with the two teams ranked No. 1 and No. 2 in ESPN's power rankings as well as Bleacher Report's Matt Miller's power rankings. 

Of course, Tom Brady remains in the school of Bill Belichick and doesn't want to make this game bigger than it is. He explained on WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show, via ESPNBoston.com:

"

We are so far from [the Super Bowl]. We have so many games [left]. If we are lucky enough to make it there, no one ever cares who we play. But that's so far down the road. We think about the one game we have ahead of us, which is a good opponent.

We have nine wins. We've done a good job getting ourselves to this position. This is when the weather turns, the mental toughness, the discipline, how much we've improved really comes into play.

"

While the Patriots are not going to look ahead, they can't stop the fans from doing the same and treating this game as an important marker going forward this season.

Pete Prisco of CBS Sports likes this matchup for the quarterbacks and believes Aaron Rodgers will get the last laugh:

"

This is a quarterback-lovers dream matchup. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers for the first time ever. What's not to like? Green Bay has scored 50 or more the past two times they've taken the field at Lambeau. They won't get that, but they will win it with Rodgers outgunning Brady.

"

The problem is this analysis discounts an important part of this game: the Patriots rushing attack.

Belichick might hate you and your fantasy team, but you can be certain LeGarrette Blount, Shane Vereen or Jonas Gray will have a big game against the Packers' No. 30 run defense. This will help the Patriots control the game and keep Rodgers off the field.

After seven wins in a row, it is hard to bet against New England, and you should not start now.

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