Washington Redskins vs. Indianapolis Colts Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Indianapolis has been one of the best teams in the NFL to bet on this season, going 8-3 against the spread, while Washington has been a poor bet at 4-7 ATS.

The first-place team in the AFC South meets the last-place team in the NFC East when the 8-3 Colts host the 4-7 Redskins Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: The Colts opened as eight-point favorites but it was bet to double digits by Wednesday; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 33.4-20.5 Colts

Why the Redskins can cover the spread

The 'Skins just lost a tough game at San Francisco Sunday 17-13, but covered as nine-point dogs on the road. Washington actually led that game late, but gave up the winning 49ers score with three minutes to go.

The Redskins only came up with 213 yards of total offense, but got 125 yards on the ground from Alfred Morris, his most productive performance of the season. And the Washington defense, which ranks 10th in the league overall, held San Francisco to just 66 yards rushing.

The 'Skins are now 1-5 SU but 3-3 ATS on the road this season, and could have easily covered at Arizona and at Minnesota.

Colt McCoy will start against the Colts, while Robert Griffin III sits down.

Why the Colts can cover the spread

The Colts bounced back after their bad loss at home to New England with a 23-3 victory over Jacksonville last week, covering as 13-point favorites. Indy outrushed the Jaguars 175-80, outgained them 389-194 and won time of possession by a 34/26 margin.

That's how you cover spreads in the NFL. Not too long ago the Colts won and covered five games in a row, until running into a hot Ben Roethlisberger in Pittsburgh. Then Tom Brady, Jonas Gray and the Patriots put up 42 on them.

But Washington's stable of quarterbacks doesn't rate with Big Ben and Tom Terrific.

Smart Pick

Indy is probably going to win this game, but the Colts might be a tad overrated on the betting line, playing at home. Meanwhile, Washington has played some decent ball on the road this season.

So the smart choice here probably resides with the Redskins, plus the ever-increasing number of points.

Betting Trends

• Redskins 5-1 ATS last 6 meetings with Colts
• Redskins 4-8 ATS last 12 games as road underdogs
• Colts 7-2 ATS last nine games as home favorites

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.