Tennessee Titans vs. Houston Texans Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

The Houston Texans have won five of the last seven meetings with the division-rival Tennessee Titans, going 5-1-1 against the spread in the process.

The 5-6 Texans hope to keep that trend alive, and get back to the .500 mark, when they host the 2-9 Titans Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Texans opened as 6.5-point favorites; the total was 42.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 22.9-10.7 Texans

Why the Titans can cover the spread

It's getting difficult to find reasons to bet the Titans, after five losses in a row. But five weeks ago they nearly won at Washington, covering as six-point dogs, later gave the Ravens a tough game in Baltimore and two weeks ago led Pittsburgh into the fourth quarter before fading but hanging on for the cover as seven-point underdogs.

Rookie quarterback Zach Mettenberger just threw for 345 yards in last week's loss to Philadelphia, and upped his touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio over the last four games to 7/4. Tennessee is a young team, looking to make progress as this season rolls on. Perhaps that might result in success Sunday.

Why the Texans can cover the spread

The Texans are 2-2 both SU and ATS over their last four games, after a 22-13 loss to Cincinnati last week, but those marks could be better.

Three weeks ago Houston was within a field goal of the Eagles late in the game before giving up an insurance touchdown, and after a victory at Cleveland the Texans only trailed the Bengals through three quarters 16-13 before fading in the fourth.

By the numbers Houston doesn't impress, ranking 18th in total offense and 29th in total defense. But the Texans also rank fourth in turnover ratio at plus-8, forcing a league-high 24 giveaways.

Smart Pick

The Texans have outrushed opponents this season by 24 yards per game; the Titans have been outrushed by 56 yards per game. So far this NFL season teams that have outrushed their opponents have covered the spread 68 percent of the time.

So the smart money here is with Houston, minus the points.

Betting Trends

• Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last five games
• Houston is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.