San Diego Chargers vs. Baltimore Ravens Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

San Diego started this season with a bang, winning five of its first six games, going 5-1 against the spread.

Since then, the Chargers are 2-3 straight-up and 0-5 ATS. Baltimore, meanwhile, started this season 2-2-1 ATS but is 4-2 ATS since. Two teams trending in different directions meet when the 7-4 Ravens host the 7-4 Chargers Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Ravens opened as 4.5-point favorites; the total was 45 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 31.7-25.3 Ravens

Why the Chargers can cover the spread

The Chargers had cooled, after a hot start, losing three games in a row to Kansas City, Denver and Miami, but have won their last two games, most recently a 27-24 decision over St. Louis last week.

The Bolts trailed the Rams at the half 10-6 but built a 27-17 lead before blowing the cover as five-point favorites by allowing a St. Louis touchdown with two minutes to go. So at 7-4 San Diego sits in a five-way tie for the top spot in the AFC wild-card race.

The Chargers only rank 20th in the league in total offense, but ninth in total defense, holding six of 11 opponents to 21 points or fewer.

Why the Ravens can cover the spread

The Ravens had lost two games in a row, but they have won and covered their last two, after beating the Saints at the Superdome Monday night 34-27, winning straight up as three-point underdogs. Baltimore outrushed New Orleans 215-126, as Justin Forsett went off for 182 yards and two scores.

So at 7-4 the Ravens are part of that five-team scrum, along with San Diego, in the AFC wild-card race. Baltimore ranks eighth in total offense, and sixth in rushing, even after parting ways with Ray Rice, while defensively the Ravens rank 15th overall and fifth vs. the run, per defensive stats charts at Odds Shark.

Smart Pick

The lack of a running game finally came back to bite San Diego, with those three straight defeats. Meanwhile, Baltimore has outrushed foes this season by 44 yards per game.

So far in this NFL season, teams that have won the ground battle have covered the spread 68 percent of the time. So the smart money in this spot lies with the Ravens, giving the points.

Betting Trends

• Chargers 10-3-1 ATS last 14 games as road underdogs
• Chargers 2-5 SU and ATS last 7 meetings with Ravens
• Ravens 9-3 ATS last 12 games as home favorites

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.