New Orleans Saints vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Pittsburgh Steelers coach Mike Tomlin must know what to do with downtime, because his Steelers are 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread in their last six games coming off their bye week.

Pittsburgh, 7-4 on the season, looks to run that streak to 7-0 when it hosts the 4-7 Saints on Sunday afternoon.

Point spread: Steelers opened as three-point favorites; the total was 51 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 27.1-25.4 Steelers

Why the Saints can cover the spread

The Saints are letting this season slip away, even playing in the weak NFC South, with three straight losses, after falling at home to Baltimore on Monday night, 34-27. New Orleans actually outgained the Ravens 525-449, but just didn't have an answer for Baltimore running back Justin Forsett, who ran for 182 yards.

A while back, the Saints looked like they had their ship righted, with back-to-back wins over Green Bay and Carolina, putting up 72 points in the process. But they followed that up with a tough loss to San Francisco, and a sleepwalking effort against Cincinnati.

Still, New Orleans ranks second in the league in total offense and eighth in rushing, which means it can put up 30-35 points on almost any given Sunday.

Why the Steelers can cover the spread

The Steelers are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS over their last five games, after beating the Titans in Tennessee two weeks ago 27-24. Pittsburgh then had last week off.

The Steelers outrushed the Titans 206-49 and held the ball for almost 40 minutes, although they couldn't quite cover as seven-point favorites. At 7-4 Pittsburgh is wedged in a five-way tie atop the AFC Wild Card standings.

Statistically speaking the Steelers rank fifth in total offense, 10th in rushing, 13th in total defense and 10th against the run, as they've outrushed opponents by 18 yards per game.

Smart Pick

The Saints still hold an edge on offense, but the Steelers hold the edge on defense. And the week off came at a good time, just before the stretch run. So the smart choice here is with Pittsburgh, the home team at the short spread.

Betting Trends

• New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five games when playing Pittsburgh
• Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last five games

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark—follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line move updates.