Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions: Betting Odds, Analysis, NFL Pick

Two NFC North teams seemingly headed in opposite directions will kick off Thanksgiving Day NFL betting action when the Chicago Bears visit the Detroit Lions.

Chicago brings a two-game winning streak to Ford Field while Detroit has dropped two in a row, but do not be fooled by the current form of either team.

The Bears have failed to cover the spread in the last four meetings with the Lions, who return home after playing consecutive road games against the top two teams in the league.

Point spread: The Lions opened as 5.5-point favorites, but it was bet to seven points by midweek; the total was 47.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark (Line updates and matchup report).

NFL pick, via Odds Shark computer: 19.5-14.5 Lions

Why the Bears can cover the spread

The last three games have all been the biggest of the season for a Chicago team that looked lost going into its bye week with a 3-5 record. The Bears responded with a dud on the road in a 55-14 loss to the Green Bay Packers as nine-point underdogs and then proceeded to win each of their last two at home when just about everybody counted them out.

That brings us to this game against Detroit, which is now Chicago’s biggest of the season because a victory here would even its record at 6-6 and provide some hope for an improbable playoff berth. Despite their recent struggles, the Bears have still won nine of the last 12 meetings with the Lions, and NFLonlinebetting.com is picking the upset.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

Detroit has had a difficult time scoring during its current skid, totaling five field goals and no touchdowns in losses to the Arizona Cardinals and the New England Patriots.

But Arizona and New England both rank among the top 15 teams in the NFL defensively while Chicago is in the bottom third of the league. Facing the Bears defense right now might just be exactly what the Lions need to get quarterback Matthew Stafford back on track, as he has been held without a touchdown pass in the past two games and has not thrown more than two in any game this season.

Returning to Ford Field should help as well, as Detroit is 5-0 against the spread (ATS) in its last five home games against NFC North opponents.

Smart Pick

Chicago is 1-6 vs. the line in its past seven divisional road games, and beating two teams with a combined record of 6-16 in the past two games does not mean all is right in the Windy City. The Bears still have major flaws and were lucky to get gifted a pair of turnovers in the second half of the victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers that led to touchdowns.

On the other hand, the Lions need not be worried about how they have played lately because they have already completed the toughest part of their schedule, outside of a visit to the Green Bay Packers in the regular-season finale. Detroit and Green Bay remain the class of the division, and the former will prove that Thursday.

Betting Trends

• Chicago is 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight games when playing Detroit.
• Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last five games when playing at home against Chicago.

Note: All spread and odds data powered by Odds Shark; follow us on Twitter for injury updates and line-move updates.