Boston Red Sox Rumors: Playing Fact or Fiction with the Latest Talk
The Boston Red Sox have had one of the more interesting four-season arcs in MLB history. They went from the gut-wrenching September collapse of 2011, to the disastrous Bobby Valentine year of 2012, followed by the World Series title in 2013, before tumbling back down to earth with a 20-game under .500 campaign in 2014.
Now Boston is trying for the quick rebuild again, and by doing so have become the most intriguing team in terms of offseason speculation. With their name in so many hats, let's play fact or fiction with the latest buzz around Fenway Park.
Fiction: Signing Pablo and Hanley Makes Boston Contenders
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What the Red Sox did Monday, signing the two highest profile bats on the free agent market, was the poor man’s version of Boston’s 2010 Winter Meeting’s coup (or so it seemed) when they brought in Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford. But while John Farrell’s lineup was in need of a boost, locking up Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez doesn’t automatically vault the Red Sox to contender status or even make them favorites within their own division.
As a switch-hitter, Sandoval will provide a much-needed left-handed bat on most nights. Penciling the clutch 28-year-old into the middle of the order is certainly a positive, but his infamous 3-homer game in the 2012 World Series coupled with his recent 2014 playoff success (.366 batting average) paint a better picture of the third baseman than what he’s provided as an everyday player. Kung Fu Panda’s average stats over the past 3 seasons: a .280 batting average, .335 OBP, 14 HR and 71.67 RBI. That’s not exactly the sort of signing that single-handedly turns an offense that ranked 18th in runs and 22nd in home runs last season into a juggernaut.
Sandoval has also been known to struggle with his weight. There was buzz Boston was interested in putting a weight clause into a potential deal with Panda, yet it’s unclear if that made the fine print of the final contract. Even if it did, is there enough money tied to it to properly incentivize the two-time All Star now that he's gotten his guaranteed payday?
Hanley Ramirez will be entering his age-31 season in 2015, raising the question if Boston is compensating the 2006 Rookie of the Year as he enters his decline. His ceiling at the plate is high, especially given the decrease in hitting production across the majors over the past few seasons. In 2013, he batted .345 with a .402 OBP, 20 HR and 25 doubles in a mere 86 games. However, that's the crux of the issue with Ramirez: can he stay on the field? He's averaged 115.75 games per season over the past four years, and durability doesn't tend to improve as a player gets older. $22 million annually through 2018 is risky even if the 3-time All Star consistently surpasses 150 games per season. If his constant injuries force Boston to put in a replacement level player for one-fourth of their games, then you're looking at a truly terrible deal.
Not only are the health and age concerns around Ramirez legitimate, but it’s unclear where he'll play defensively. With Sandoval’s reliable glove taking over at third (Fangraphs gave him a 5.3 defensive rating last season, sixth best among MLB third basemen) and presumed future franchise cornerstone Xander Bogaerts manning shortstop, the only two positions Ramirez has ever slotted are filled. Speculation has begun that Boston will try to hide Ramirez's weak defensive skills in the shallow left field that the Green Monster provides. While some will point to the "if Manny Ramirez can play LF in Fenway, then anyone can" defense, it's no picnic adapting to a totally new position or playing all the unusual ricochets off the Monster.
The high-profile additions show Boston is serious about putting a winner on the field in 2015, but it’s too early to say they'll vie for a World Series. This duo isn't a cure-all, and the starting pitching concerns plus the number of subsequent moves obtaining these players will trigger leave too much uncertainty as to what this team will look like come opening day.
Fact: Re-Signing Jon Lester Should Be Boston's Top Priority
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Clay Buchholz (5.34 ERA in 2014), Rubby De La Rosa (4.43 ERA), Joe Kelly (4.20 ERA), Brandon Workman (5.17 ERA), Allen Webster (5.03 ERA) and Anthony Ranaudo (4.81 ERA). Those are the current starting pitchers employed on the Red Sox 40-man roster. And even though four of Boston's top 10 prospects are starting pitchers (according to Baseball America), Matt Barnes appears the only one with a legitimate chance to be on the team come Opening Day. Simply put, the Red Sox are in desperate need of rotation help and the influx should start with the return of homegrown Jon Lester.
The Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reports that Boston has extended an offer in the $110-$120 million range over six years to the All-Star LHP. That's an uptick from the 4-year/$70 million deal that Lester reportedly turned down in spring training of 2014. Lester publicly expressed a willingness to come back to Boston as recently as August, and he infamously favorited a Bill Simmons tweet the day he was dealt about a 2015 reunion. That makes it appear that hurt feelings aren't a hurdle the Red Sox need to overcome. For his part, GM Ben Cherington garnered praise from Lester's agent in how the club has treated his client since the sides began discussions (per WEEI):
""I will not comment on negotiations nor will I characterize a meeting other than to say that the Red Sox extended great respect to Jon."
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Boston isn't alone in the chase for the 30-year-old lefty, as the Cubs, Cardinals and Braves are also reportedly in the hunt. However, it's imperative the Red Sox win the battle for his services. It's not the nostalgia factor, but because Lester offers the best bang for your buck when it comes to the free agent starting pitcher market. He's coming off a season where he posted a career-low in ERA (2.46) and a career-high in innings pitched (219.2). Despite a poor outing in the 2014 Wild Card game, he's compiled a 2.57 ERA in 84 career playoff innings and is 3-0 with a 0.43 ERA in World Series starts (including victories in two world championship clinchers for the Fenway faithful). He has a good relationship with current manager and former pitching coach John Farrell, an understanding of the Red Sox way and leadership capabilities to help nurture the next wave of young pitching talent ascending from the farm system.
While questions swirl about other potential rotation options, the Red Sox know what they'd be getting in Lester. They need to do everything in their power to ensure he's the Opening Day starter come April 6.
Fiction: James Shields Is Worth the Sticker Price
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James Shields has been a fine pitcher. The one-time All Star is a 200+ innings workhorse a team can count on, as he's surpassed that mark each of the past eight seasons. Since 2011, the Rays and Royals' innings eater increased his workload, pitching 227+ innings in every one of the past four years (including 17 complete games and seven shutouts) while compiling a 58-39 record and posting a 3.17 ERA. Clubs need a starter or two like Shields who they can rely on to go deep into games every five days and save the bullpen periodically throughout the brutal 162-game season. The impact he has on his team's relief pitchers is under-appreciated by the common fan.
Having said that, the five-year/$100 million number that's floating around for the soon-to-be 33-year-old pitcher is asinine. Those pointing to his surefire reliability going forward because of his past durability must ignore recent historical examples such as Roy Halladay and Pedro Martinez. Halladay won a Cy Young award in 2010 during his age-33 season, followed it up with an All Star campaign at 34-years-old in 2011, and then proceeded to have his career implode during the dreadful 2012 and 2013 seasons at ages 35 and 36 (5.15 ERA, 30 HR allowed in 218.1 innings pitched). Martinez had a similar fall from grace after an All Star season in 2005 when he succumbed to a slew injuries and ineffectiveness during the last four years of his career spanning age 34-37. Then throw in the quick demise of CC Sabathia and Johan Santana, players who'd grind out 200+ All-Star caliber innings a season like clockwork until all of a sudden they couldn't.
But the mere length and cost of the deal for an aging starter isn't the only thing that makes the The Kansas City Star's Oct. report about Boston being the "early favorite" for Shields concerning. His strikeout rate has taken a sharp dive in the past two seasons (8.8 strikeouts per nine innings in 2012 down to 7.1 last season) and unsurprisingly the hits per nine innings have increased from 8.2 to 8.9 over that same stretch. For a man who has been victimized by the long ball throughout his career (25.2 HR allowed per season) the increase in opponent's contact rate is concerning.
The fact that the veteran has failed to live up to his 'Big Game James' moniker should also give the starting pitcher's suitors great pause. As sparkling as his regular season numbers have been of late, the clock apparently strikes midnight on Shields' baffling change-up and cutter when the postseason arrives. In 11 playoff starts, he sports a 5.46 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 76 hits allowed in 59.1 innings pitched.
Boston's starting rotation will still need help even if they are able to lure Lester back, but they'd be better served looking at the second and third tier free agent market rather than overpaying for Shields. Hiroki Kuroda is intriguing even at age 40 as a reliable 200-inning starter who has proven he can kick it in the AL East (3.44 ERA in 620 innings over the past three seasons with the Yankees). Ervin Santana, Edinson Volquez, Francisco Liriano, Jason Hammel and former Red Sox product Justin Masterson round out the notable available rotation arms whose services would come at a more reasonable price than Shields.
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Fact: Red Sox Should Trade Yoenis Cespedes for a SP
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I dismissed the rumors that trickled out after Oakland dealt Yoenis Cespedes in July that he ruffled feathers with A's coaches by refusing to work on his approach at the plate. Familiar with recent Red Sox smear campaigns, I took it as an additional attempt by Billy Beane and company to sell the fan base on parting with the electrifying OF. I similarly scoffed at the New York Daily News report from October that Cespedes wouldn't play RF, "marches to his own drum and the [Red Sox] coaches all hate him." Everyone despises this guy after only three months? That'd be a remarkable, Robert Griffin III kind of pace.
John Farrell did his best to quiet the negative chatter on Tuesday (per MassLive.com):
""To his credit, [Cespedes is] just eager to do whatever is needed by this team. He’s showing that he’s a complete team player. And we’re excited to have his versatility be at our disposal at those other two spots, whether it’s center, right, we’ll determine that once we get to camp."
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Even if Cespedes is in fact a revered teammate the likes of Lou Gehrig, now that Hanley Ramirez is in tow and likely shifting to LF the two-time HR Derby champion becomes expendable. Boston has a surplus of OFs and the aforementioned dire need for starting pitching. Ramirez, Cespedes, Mookie Betts, Shane Victorino, $72.5 million dollar Cuban Rusney Castillo, Allen Craig, Daniel Nava and ideal defensive replacement 4th OF Jackie Bradley Jr.
Of that group, Cespedes and Betts can draw the biggest return, making them the most logical choices to be paired with a prospect or two in a deal for a high-quality starting pitcher. Smartly, the shrewd Boston brass is reportedly reluctant to deal the seven-year younger Betts, but an in-his-prime Cespedes who displays raw power in a league where HR totals have drastically tumbled in recent years is still a pretty attractive carrot to dangle. The most likely trade targets Boston could pursue: Phillies LHP Cole Hamels, Mariners RHP Hisashi Iwakuma and Nationals RHP Jordan Zimmerman.
As of Nov. 24, the Red Sox "have had the most serious talks" in regards to Hamels, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale. The Phillies received widespread criticism for not dealing the three-time All Star before July's trade deadline while in the midst of their second straight 73-89 season (preceded by a .500 campaign in 2012). Their 2015 outlook doesn't look much better and their farm system is in desperate need of replenishment, which makes CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury's report that Philadelphia wants "at least three quality prospects in return" totally logical.
Despite the fact that Red Sox GM Ben Cherington has been vocal about his distaste for giving pitchers long-term deals that stretch into their mid-to-late 30's, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Hamels seems like a great fit. As a left-handed finesse pitcher who relies on his control rather than overwhelming velocity, he's more likely to age better during the remaining four years on his current deal that also includes a 2019 option (max contract value coming to $110 million). The Red Sox have also shown their desire to acquire playoff proven entities, and Hamels has 2008 NLCS and World Series MVP honors to his name to go along with a 3.09 ERA in 81.2 playoff innings.
Boston Globe's Nick Cafardo reported the Red Sox had "internal conversations" about Hisashi Iwakuma after the Mariners began fielding calls for the 2013 All Star in mid-November. His 2015 salary is a relative bargain at $7 million, but he offers less long-term value because he'll turn 34-years-old in April and becomes a free agent after this upcoming season. However, the Mariners could use a power right-handed bat to slot in-between Robinson Cano and newly inked Kyle Seager. With Seattle's farm system flush with young pitching talent, the aging Iwakuma is a moveable piece. Boston could use him to fill a need in 2015 while looking to sign him to a similarly affordable short-term deal after the season, then use their savings to pursue 2016 free agents Doug Fister or Johnny Cueto.
USA Today's Bob Nightengale was back at it again reporting the Nationals have made back-to-back All Star Jordan Zimmerman "available." It would seem the RHP, who'll turn 29 in May, is more likely to cost Boston the 22-year-old Betts since he could shift back to his natural position of second base and fill a need for Washington. But if the Nationals know they aren't re-signing Zimmerman anyway and given that A) Denard Span is entering the final year of his contract, B) Bryce Harper has openly advocated that he play center field, and C) Washington's offense abandoned them in the 2012 and 2014 playoffs, a deal built around Cespedes is feasible. Harper would shift to his desired CF, presumably helping DC appeal more to the ascending superstar with the gesture of faith before they try to sign him long-term. Cespedes can happily stay in LF and provide the sort of power at the dish that could help the Nationals offense avoid a third straight disappearing act come October. Meanwhile, the Red Sox would acquire a power righty in his prime who has pitched like an ace over the past four seasons (53-33, 3.00 ERA since 2011, according to Baseball Reference).
Fact: Re-Signing Andrew Miller Is Vital
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If the Red Sox are truly going to build "a strong contending team for 2015" as Ben Cherington said in wake of the Jon Lester trade back in July, then shoring up the bullpen is a must.
They started the offseason by locking up closer Koji Uehara on a two-year deal. But after an All-Star first-half of 2014, the local favorite trended the opposite direction following the Midsummer Classic leading some to wonder if the bloom is off the rose. He posted a 4.35 ERA and managed just 20.2 innings in the season's second-half after being nearly un-hittable since 2012. Arm fatigue has been a long-standing issue with Uehara, and that shouldn't be expected to go away as he enters his age-40 season.
Meanwhile, Edward Mujica remains in tow and is expected to be the team's fill-in closer should Uehara no longer be up to the task. The 2013 All-Star settled down after a rocky start to his Red Sox tenure (1.78 ERA and 6 for 6 on save opportunities Post All-Star Break, per Baseball Reference). Throw in a reliable 60+ innings from Junichi Tazawa and Boston appears to have the 7th-9th innings covered.
However, the missing element from that trio is the LHP component. Enter Andrew Miller. Boston was the place where he successfully transformed from failed starting pitching prospect into a fireballing force out of pen. And don't mistake him for a left-handed specialist, as Miller has actually been more successful in baffling right-handed batters over the past two seasons (.148 opponent's average vs. RHB, .208 for LHB -- per Baseball Reference). That strength puts Miller over-the-top into the must-sign category. With Uehara somewhat of a question mark and Mujica having a history of inconsistency, Miller is a malleable chess piece John Farrell can use in a multitude of situations over the course of a season.
The current lefties on Boston's roster are uninspiring, furthering the club's need to re-acquire Miller after dealing him last trade deadline in the midst of a lost season. Craig Breslow (5.96 ERA, 1.86 WHIP in 2014) never recovered from his 2013 World Series meltdown, while Tommy Layne is a 30-year-old journeyman who tops out at 90 MPH and is purely a lefty-on-lefty reliever.
The 2014 Kansas City Royals showed what a valuable weapon a bullpen stock full of power arms can be come October. So while bringing back Burk Badenhop and pursuing Luke Gregerson would be nice additions, reuniting with Andrew Miller is of the utmost importance.
