NFL Predictions Week 12: Final Odds Projections and Fantasy Stars to Watch

For NFL fans, few things mesh better than Las Vegas odds and fantasy football.

Odds make even the most lopsided of matchups important and provide fans a way in which they can make cash while kicking back and taking in all of the action Sunday. And Monday. And Thursday.

Fantasy football actually puts owners in the driver's seat of their very own team and requires just as much knowledge and preparation each and every week to find success against others who are likely just as obsessive.

Below is a combination of both worlds. The current odds and who to roll with and why are complemented by three can't-miss fantasy studs for Week 12.

NFL Week 12 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason	Projected Top Fantasy Performer
Cleveland at Atlanta	ATL -3	Falcons	The Falcons are tough at home, and the Browns secondary will have no answers for Julio Jones.	Isaiah Crowell
Tennessee at Philadelphia	PHI -11	Titans	The Titans are better than advertised and can pressure Mark Sanchez consistently.	LeSean McCoy
Detroit at New England	NE -7.5	Lions	Tom Brady and Co. are on fire, but not enough to cover a big spread against an elite secondary.	Rob Gronkowski
Cincinnati at Houston	HOU -1	Bengals	Cincinnati is on the upswing at the right time as the offense continues to get healthy.	A.J. Green
Green Bay at Minnesota	GB -9	Packers	Aaron Rodgers is unstoppable at this juncture, a trend that will continue against Minnesota's defense.	Aaron Rodgers
Tampa Bay at Chicago	CHI -6	Buccaneers	Josh McCown going against his old team does not sound like much, but it will produce an upset.	Mike Evans
Jacksonville at Indianapolis	IND -14	Jaguars	Denard Robinson can help keep the ball out of Andrew Luck's hands to the point this large spread is just too much.	Andrew Luck
NY Jets at Buffalo	BUF -4.5	Jets	Michael Vick in the face of a great rush on the road is bad news.	Michael Vick
Arizona at Seattle	SEA -7	Cardinals	Drew Stanton looks like Carson Palmer, while the Seahawks look nothing like defending champs.	Marshawn Lynch
St. Louis at San Diego	SD -5	Chargers	Philip Rivers can overcome a shaky defense at home when asked.	Ryan Mathews
Washington at San Francisco	SF -9	49ers	San Francisco is back to form while Washington implodes. Easy.	Frank Gore
Miami at Denver	DEN -7.5	Dolphins	Miami quietly has one of the best secondaries in the NFL, while Peyton Manning has struggled over the course of the last few weeks.	Wes Welker
Dallas at NY Giants	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	DeMarco Murray is going to run wild on a shaky New York Giants defense.	DeMarco Murray
Baltimore at New Orleans	NO -3.5	Ravens	New Orleans has shockingly lost two in a row at home, while Baltimore had a bye week to prepare for Drew Brees.	Steve Smith

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark and accurate as of 7 a.m. ET on Nov. 22.

Projecting Top Week 12 Fantasy Performers

LeSean McCoy

Thomas B. Shea/Getty Images

Plenty of owners around the globe just cringed at this one.

Philadelphia Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has been so, well, average in comparison to his output one year ago that he has had to answer plenty of questions in regard to what is wrong with his play.

"I'm not going to address, 'Am I the same player?' I won't address that. For what? What are we talking about, am I the same player? That's for y'all to figure out. You crazy? Am I the same player? I am the same player," McCoy said Wednesday, per Les Bowen of Philly.com.

McCoy has had a rough go of it this season, ranking outside of the top 15 scorers at his position and reaching double digits just twice. Duds such as a Week 10 outing in which he gained 19 yards on 12 carries only highlight the fact that he has scored just twice this season.

Things figure to change Sunday, though.

Week 12 brings a matchup with the Tennessee Titans, a team that surrenders the absolute most points to backs this season. Over the course of the past two weeks, the Titans have allowed backfields 27 or more points in each contest. 

McCoy is not the top-five fantasy back most want him to be, but he is sure going to look like it Sunday against a Titans defense that cannot stop rushers from getting notable yardage on most carries.

For those who continue to ride with McCoy, Sunday might just be a critical launch pad with the playoffs on the horizon.

Projection: 18 points

Steve Smith

Evan Vucci/Associated Press

A proven veteran gets to meet an old friend Sunday in what is sure to be a dominant fantasy showing.

Owners have surely soured on Baltimore Ravens wideout Steve Smith in recent weeks, which makes sense considering he has scored a maximum of six points in each of his last four outings—including a one-point dud against Tennessee in Week 10 (while back Justin Forsett got his owners 23 points).

But Smith is a proven commodity. He has scored in double digits four times this season and is especially potent against the New Orleans Saints—a team that he has scored on 10 times, good for the most against any opponent over the course of his illustrious career.

A note from Saints coach Sean Payton, via his team's Twitter account, says it all:

Not only does Smith historically torch the Saints, it just so happens that New Orleans also surrenders the seventh-most points to wideouts at home. Over the course of its last five outings, Rob Ryan's defense has surrendered a minimum of 20 points to wideouts, with 25 and 20 being the most recent allowances at home.

Smith is in for a major day at the Superdome. The Saints defense is going to be stretched thin as it attempts to account for all of Baltimore's weapons. The propensity for a shootout against the potent Saints offense is also there, meaning Smith will get plenty of looks.

Owners should be used to this by now. Smith against the Saints is money.

Projection: 16 points

DeMarco Murray

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

Ready for part two? 

The No. 1 scorer at running back this season, Dallas Cowboys lead man DeMarco Murray is nothing short of ecstatic for a second encounter with the wobbly New York Giants this season.

In his first dance with the Giants, Murray took 28 carries and produced 128 yards and a score with 18 points. Now, he has looked a bit off as of late, scoring eight points in Week 9 and 13 in Week 10 before a bye, but the rest and a favorable matchup ensure he will get back on track.

Besides, it seems quite silly to not have faith in a guy who has nine double-digit outings in 10 games this season: 

WK	OPP	ATT	YDS	TD	PTS
1	SF	22	118	1	17
2	@Ten	29	167	1	20
3	@StL	24	100	1	17
4	NO	24	149	2	26
5	Hou	31	136	0	16
6	@Sea	29	115	1	20
7	NYG	28	128	1	18
8	Wsh	19	141	0	20
9	Ari	19	79	0	8
10	@Jac	19	100	0	13
11	BYE	-	-	-	-

New York has not exactly improved since Week 7, either. 

In fact, the Giants still surrender the third-most points to backs this season. A Week 10 allowance of 48 points and four scores to Seattle says all that really needs to be said about the defense at this point.

Fully rested after a bye, Murray is a lock to have one of the top days of the week, so clear the schedule and enjoy the show as a potential MVP candidate runs wild.

Projection: 22 points

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required). Pittsburgh, Carolina on bye. All scoring info courtesy of ESPN standard leagues, as are points-against info and ownership stats. Statistics courtesy of ESPN.